
UBS and Credit Suisse First Boston
December 11, 2003
Dennis FitzSimons, President and CEO
We're happy to be here with you today to briefly review
our 2003 accomplishments and take a look at our goals for
2004. Presenting with me today are Don Grenesko, our CFO,
as well as Jack Fuller and Pat Mullen, presidents of our
publishing and broadcasting groups.
Our 2003 results again demonstrate the strength of our media
businesses. We publish 13 daily newspapers, own 26 television
stations and operate a growing interactive business. By the
way, our baseball team had a pretty good year, too. When
you put it all together, it looks like this.
Last year in December we said the year
would begin with a strong first half. It did; during that
period, Tribune's consolidated revenues grew nearly 5%.
We also told you that in the second half we would need
some help from the economy because year-over-year comparisons
would be tough. And that's how it's played out -- a challenging
advertising environment. But 2003 top line growth should
still come in at about 4%.
One thing we didn't anticipate was that the Cubs would win
the National League Central division and nearly make it to
the World Series. While it only helped a little with earnings-per-share,
it sets up WGN-TV and Radio, as well as Superstation WGN
very well for next year's selling season.
Going back to regular business, margins improved in both
newspapers and television in 2003. Television cash flow margins
increased more than one percentage point, publishing increased
slightly despite continued weakness in help wanted and higher
newsprint prices.
Operating cash flow will be about 1.6 billion dollars in
2003. More than half of that converts to free cash flow,
and that compares favorably to many of our peers in the media
sector. This year we've used our cash primarily to repurchase
stock and pay down debt. Outstanding debt declined 650 million
dollars in 2003 and will be about 2 billion dollars at year-end,
bringing our debt/cash flow ratio to 1.3X.
Last, but certainly not least, we expect earnings per share
to be up in the range of 12% in 2003, despite a lower pension
credit that impacted earnings by 6 cents.
We have some equally aggressive goals for 2004. But, while
the economy looks to be improving, the sustainability of
the recovery hinges on job creation. The good news is that
we saw four months of sequential improvement in job creation
from August through November.
In fact, in November, help wanted advertising
grew 1 percent year-over-year -- our first increase in
that category in more than 36 months. We see this as an area
of big upside for us, particularly given our major market
exposure.
On the television side, we're anticipating a strong ad market,
thanks to overall inventory tightening due to Olympics and
elections in 2004.
Overall our 2004 plan calls for low double-digit
earnings-per-share growth, within the range of analysts'
estimates. We have a number of positives in both publishing
and broadcasting, but we also face another challenging year
on the cost side.
As with many other companies, pension accounting is having
a significant impact on our retirement expense line. The
good news is that since our pension plan is still over-funded,
we will not be making cash contributions.
Don will go into the details in a moment, so let me turn
now to the regulatory picture.
After much debate, Congress has elected
not to hold up the FCC's change in media ownership rules
-- relaxation of the broadcast/newspaper cross-ownership
ban was left in tact, as were loosened duopoly restrictions.
A national TV ownership cap of 39% seems to be a compromise
that all have grudgingly accepted. We think that the FCC
got it right, and the federal court in Philadelphia will
confirm that in the first quarter of 2004. (For us, this
was a good outcome. Cross-ownership was our main issue. That
seems to be OK. As far as the cap, we are at 30%, so we
have significant room to grow.)
We believe strongly that both the public
and companies in the media sector will be better served
by clarity, not further delay -- just establish the rules
and let us compete!
And Tribune is well-positioned to compete
in this environment. What sets us apart is something we've
called "national reach
and local touch." It's a combination of scale on the national
level and localism in our individual markets that gives us
an advantage in a media marketplace crowded with more and
more national media options. Our strength is local mass media.
First, let's talk about the importance of scale. As you
know, Tribune's media businesses in the aggregate reach 80%
of U.S. consumers with a significant concentration in the
top markets. That's a competitive advantage.
And the scale of our assets pays off
in a number of ways...
- It provides opportunities
to offer viewers and readers broader and deeper news
coverage.
- In TV, it gives us access
to the best syndicated and off-net programming.
- And
for advertising clients, it allows us to offer customized
solutions.
- Finally, in both our lines
of business, scale affords us greater negotiating leverage
to reduce costs.
Let me give you some specific examples of how we are building
further value off our existing assets. Just last week, we
reached a multi-level agreement with Comcast, the nation's
largest MSO and the dominant cable provider in the Chicago
area. In partnership with Comcast and the White Sox, Bulls
and Blackhawks, we will launch a new regional sports network
in September 2004. We will receive significant rights fees
for the 72 Cubs games that will air on the channel, plus
a percentage of the network's profits. We've also agreed
to sell our 8.6% interest in the Golf Channel to Comcast
for 100 million dollars. There are some other important aspects
of our relationship with Comcast, and Pat will cover them.
We're also using our assets on the publishing side as a
platform for growth.
We are building on existing franchises to reach new readers.
For example, in September, we expanded our Spanish language
daily, Hoy! , from New York to Chicago where it
is meeting with great success. A little more than a year
ago, we launched RedEye , an edition of the Chicago
Tribune aimed at adults 18-34. RedEye is also
proving successful, with total circulation now up to about
90,000 daily.
We've also invested in amNY , a free tabloid for
young readers in Manhattan . It's a good way to tap into
New York 's 4.5 million daily subway commuters.
As the only media company with television stations, newspapers
and web sites in the nation's top three markets of New York
, Los Angeles and Chicago , we also have a unique edge that
enables us to compete better. We share content, cross-promote
our brands and cross-sell advertising among our businesses.
You'll hear more about this from Jack and Pat.
In a media environment where new national
choices are causing audiences to fragment, local mass media
like Tribune's will continue to increase in value. That's
because while advertisers have a lot of national network
options -- both electronic and
print -- there are many fewer local options. That's why our
focus will continue to be local mass media, and why we see
this as a time to be taking the offensive -- extending brands,
innovating, and targeting new audiences to increase our overall
share of advertising dollars.
Now, let's go to Don Grenesko. Jack and Pat will follow,
and I'll be back to take your questions and wrap up.
Don Grenesko, Sr. Vice-President/Finance and Administration
Thanks Dennis. Today I'll cover our performance as we approach
the end of the year, and our outlook for 2004.
Importantly, despite challenges on the cost side in both
2003 and 2004, we'll show excellent earnings growth, thanks
to effective cost management, coupled with revenue initiatives
at each of our business groups.
First, as we wind down 2003...
- Revenue performance has been strong,
as Dennis mentioned. Through November, consolidated
revenues are up about 4%, which is where we expect
to finish the year. Of special note is the 20% increase
in interactive revenues that we've posted year to date.
Our significant investment in this growth strategy
over the past few years, is paying off.
- Our focus on expenses in all of
our businesses has been intense this year, and our
performance is better than we anticipated, despite
a $35 million reduction in our pension credit. Consolidated
cash expenses will be up just 3%, and this comes on
the heels of a 3% decrease in expenses in 2002.
- This combination of top-line
growth and cost control will again result in record
earnings-per-share for 2003.
Let's now turn to 2004. The initiatives that Jack and Pat
will cover should enable our revenues to grow around 6% including
1% from new publications, such as Hoy and amNewYork.
Consolidated cash expenses are expected
to increase about 5½% in 2004.
- 2% of this 5½% increase is
due to higher retirement plan expense as well as
from a double-digit increase in medical expense;
- 1 percentage point of the rise reflects
a budgeted increase in newsprint prices;
- Another 1% relates to the expenses
for the new publications I mentioned.
- And the remaining 1½% is due
to normal salary and other inflationary increases.
Now let's talk about the reasons for our retirement plan
expense, because it accounts for about 1/3 of next year's
consolidated expense increase.
- First is the continued impact of
investment results from 2000 through 2002. During
that period, our pension plan assets lost 7.5% annually,
compared to an expected return of 9.5%. These results
were slightly better than other pension plans and significantly
above the S&P 500 Index,
which fell by 13% annually over this 3-year period.
The impact of these results is being phased into the
calculation of our pension expense over a 4-year period.
This accounts for $30 million of our increase in 2004.
We will continue to feel the impact of these investment
results in 2005 and 2006, but to a much lesser extent.
On the positive side, our pension investment results
are up about 20% this year.
- Second, the rate we use to discount
our pension liabilities is projected to decline, which
increases our expense by nearly $10 million. This rate
will be based upon long-term bond rates at year-end.
- Finally, we are phasing in a new
company-wide retirement plan, because our ESOP expires
at the end of this year. As a result, the preferred
shares in the ESOP will convert to common shares, eliminating
preferred dividends. These preferred dividends were
used to fund the ESOP, but were not reflected as a compensation
expense. They did however, reduce our net income in
calculating EPS. Under the new plan, all of our retirement
contributions will be reflected as compensation expense.
Due to this change in "geography," benefits
expense will appear to increase by nearly $20 million,
but there is no impact on earnings per share.
- Importantly, our pension plans are
overfunded by $130 million, and we won't be forced to
make a cash contribution to our pension plan in 2004
like many other companies will have to do.
Turning to our business groups, Publishing's newsprint expense
is expected to be up in the high-single to low-double digit
range in 2004. The combined impact of higher retirement and
newsprint costs will cause total publishing expenses to grow
in the mid-single digits.
In television, we have a good story on the cost side. Programming
expenses began to decline in this year's fourth quarter,
and will decline in the low-single digits for 2004. This
will help to offset rising medical and retirement costs,
so overall TV expenses are only expected to be up in the
low-single digits.
With that perspective on expenses, let's now turn to other
key components of next year's financial outlook.
Equity income should improve somewhat over 2003, with contributions
from the TV Food and the WB Networks partially offset by
increased promotional spending at Classified Ventures.
Debt at the end of this year will be down to the $2 billion
level. We expect it to decline again in 2004, dropping to
$1.8 billion by year-end. We will have reduced our debt by
about a third in just two years, substantially enhancing
our financial flexibility. With this lower debt level, interest
expense is expected to fall by 6% next year.
2004 Capital spending will be in the range of $220 million,
an increase over recent years because we will be making important
investments in printing capabilities that Jack will discuss.
That brings me to ROIC -- return on invested
capital -- which
is a key performance measure for us. Historically, our return
has been in the 12-14% range, but it declined to around 5%
following the Times Mirror acquisition and 2001 recession.
It's improved each year since then, and in 2004, we expect
ROIC to increase to over 8%, which about covers our cost
of capital. We've been able to accomplish this by growing
cash flow, focusing on high value capital projects, and using
a disciplined approach to acquisitions.
We expect to generate about $900 million in free cash flow
next year, and we expect low double-digit growth in our EPS,
which is within the current range of analysts' estimates.
Bottom line: Tribune will be well-positioned for the future
and for delivering value to our shareholders.
And on that note, I'll turn it over to Jack.
Jack Fuller, President/Tribune Publishing
Thanks, Don. With Dennis' comments about our the value of
our local mass media as background, I'm going to get more
specific about how we plan to invest in new products and
services that meet both readers and advertisers' changing
needs. Our ability to develop innovative solutions along
with our scale make me confident that our newspaper franchises
will grow faster than the industry as the economy recovers.
Let's start by taking a look at how our 2003 results compare
to the industry. As you can see, our results stack up very
well.
Tribune outpaced the industry in retail driven by the strength
of preprints. National lagged slightly because movies have
been a drag until recently. Even so, our national categories
three-year CAGR was more than twice the industry growth rate.
Classified was less negative than the industry because of
our intense sales focus . And we expect our overall
revenue performance will improve in 2004 for reasons I will
discuss in a moment.
Now let's take a quick look at some of this year's accomplishments.
CareerBuilder is replacing Monster as the exclusive job
listings provider for AOL and Microsoft Network. This will
increase CareerBuilder's audience to well over 10 million
users each month.
The Baltimore Sun reached a contract settlement with the
Newspaper Guild. It marks the beginning of a new working
relationship with the Guild in which The Sun and its employees
should prosper. The newspaper should see improved financial
performance.
We have also moved quickly and aggressively to extend our
brands and develop new products aimed at targeted segments
of our audience, especially young and Spanish language readers.
Here are a few examples:
Hoy debuted in Chicago in September, building
on the success we enjoy in New York . Its paid circulation
has already reached 17,000 bringing Hoy's total
circulation to 113,000. And its revenues are far exceeding
our expectations. Overall our Spanish language publications
will have
$26 million in revenue in 2003, a 34% increase over 2002.
RedEye is continuing to attract new advertising
dollars. This past fall, American Express used it to promote
their new product, Blue Cash, in Chicago . The campaign included
-- a double truck ad in the Chicago Tribune, an extensive
presence on Metromix and all the ad avails in RedEye! The
result was hundreds of thousands of dollars for Tribune in
Chicago and a very happy client.
Here in Manhattan , amNewYork 's
circulation has grown to approximately 170,000 and advertising
is strong with firms like Filene's Basement, TJ Maxx, AT&T
Wireless and T-Mobile. Since Newsday has not yet established
strong readership there, we're taking ad dollars directly
out of other competitors. amNewYork is also benefiting
from the promotional power of WPIX, with clever ads like
this one. (Roll video)
Now let's turn to 2004. As Don mentioned, we will have challenges
on the cost side, but you can count on us to operate our
newspapers in the disciplined manner you have come to expect
from Tribune.
Today, I want to concentrate on the opportunities on the
revenue side. Together, our new products will add a percentage
point of growth. There are three other major drivers that
should enable Tribune Publishing to grow faster than the
industry: 1) our newspapers and CareerBuilder are well positioned
to capture help wanted advertising as it rebounds;
2) we are making smart capital investments that allow us to better serve advertisers
and thus increase our share of their budgets; 3) we are aggressively improving
our position in the fast growing national category through Tribune Media Net.
Let's start with help wanted, where the rebound is already
beginning. As Dennis mentioned, we finally had a year-over-year
help wanted increase in November. And all the economic signs
are pointing to a continued acceleration.
The story gets even better as we look out a number of years.
A generational workplace transition unlike any other in US
history is about to occur. Within the next five years the
baby boomers will begin retiring in significant numbers and
there are far fewer people in the trailing age cohort who
can replace them.
Employers are going to need to use multiple advertising
channels, including both print and online, to attract and
hire quality employees, and that is what they get with CareerBuilder.
As a result of the distribution agreements with AOL and Microsoft
Network that are starting now, plus the continued strong
local promotion, we expect CareerBuilder's job seeker traffic
to further close the gap with Monster.
Having more job seekers leads to more revenue. We are already
seeing a pick up by CareerBuilder among Fortune 1000 customers,
where Monster had gotten much of its business in the last
several years. CareerBuilder has taken key accounts away
from Monster, including Firestone/Bridgestone, Target, Safeway,
Hyatt and Lockheed Martin.
We're also making smart capital investments.
We have invested more than $160 million over the last four
years for upgraded preprint capability in Los Angeles and
Chicago . These investments are really paying off. Both markets
saw their share of the preprint market increase in 2003,
and we expect that to continue in 2004. And we are building
on this with new insertion capacity in South Florida , Hartford
, Newport News and Orlando .
Another area of revenue growth is color advertising. Advertisers
have shown a willingness to pay a meaningful premium for
color. In 2003 this color premium at the Chicago Tribune alone
amounted to $20 million. We'll be investing in Chicago and
LA to increase color capacity.
Finally, Tribune Publishing is focused on the continued
growth of Tribune Media Net. In 2003, TMN booked $70 million
in incremental revenue -- and we expect this to grow to $85
million in 2004. Since its inception in 2001, TMN has grown
at an impressive compound annual growth rate of 37%. Next
year, we plan to expand TMN's retail sales force and increase
our focus on national retailers.
Summing up, Tribune Publishing is well positioned for strong
revenue growth as we enter 2004.
Now here's Pat Mullen to give you a
closer look at the success we've been having at our broadcast
operations...
Patrick Mullen, President/Tribune Broadcasting
Thanks, Jack. As Dennis said, we are very confident about
the future of local mass media and we know that scale helps
to improve our competitive position.
Our accomplishments in 2003 are good examples of this.
- TV cash flow margins will improve
a full percentage point to 41.5%;
- We added scale with the addition
of WB affiliates in St. Louis and Portland , the nation's
21st and 24th largest markets, respectively;
- On the programming front we've had
a number of exciting developments which will pay
dividends in future years.
We've acquired the rights to HBO's "Sex
and the City" beginning
in Fall 2005 for all of our television markets . Not
only is this a terrific show -- numerous Emmys attest to
that fact -- but it's also the perfect fit with our high-rated
sitcoms such as "Friends." HBO's subscriber base is
about 27 million homes or, about 25% of U.S. Television Households.
So, for a majority of viewers, we're providing a brand new
program, but one with tremendous built-in brand-name recognition.
This programming from HBO is also significant in that it
introduces another high-quality supplier for that all-important
early and late-fringe time periods.
And earlier this year Tribune Entertainment
announced a new syndication partnership with DreamWorks
to distribute 34 motion pictures -- a package which represents
58 academy award nominations and 23 winners. These films
will air on Tribune's major market stations also beginning
in 2005.
Our key sitcoms "Friends," "Raymond,"
"Will & Grace" - continue
to do very well in early and late fringe -- critical dayparts
which account for over 40% of station revenues. And season-to-date,
our local stations primetime ratings are 50% higher than
the national ratings for the WB network. And, you'll recall
that last year at this conference one of the headlines was
the dramatic increase at the WB... well, in contrast to all
the reports about the this season's ratings, it's important
that you know that our stations HH ratings are down only
4% from last year.
Now let's turn from programming to ad sales.
After a very robust 2002 driven by a recovering ad market
and strong political business we
knew that comparisons in the second half of 2003 would be
difficult.
So the flat pace for this year's fourth quarter looks pretty
good, and we're confident our stations are outpacing the
majority of the industry.
Finally, we continued to build momentum
in cross-media markets in 2003. Jack mentioned Tribune
Media Net -- and let me add
that fully half of TMN's revenues are related to cross-media.
A couple good examples of our cross-media success recently
came out of Los Angeles .
On the cross-selling front, KTLA and
the LA Times created a winning campaign for a brand new
client -- Vegas.com,
which generated $2M in incremental revenue.
And for powerful cross-promotion -- a really
great example is the WB magazine you see up on the screen
right now. The magazine ran as a supplement in the September
21st edition of the LA Times.
From putting program promotion in the hands of our readers
to driving younger WB viewers to the newspaper, this was
a very exciting and ground-breaking project. It was so successful
that we'll repeat it in February and we're exploring the
possibility of expanding to other Tribune cross-media markets
as well.
On that note, let's take a look at 2004.
We expect the overall market, fueled
by Olympics and political advertising, to show robust revenue
growth. While our political share of revenue is lower than
our spot revenue share, it's still an important and growing
segment for us. More and more, politicians are realizing
that they need to reach the young "swing
voters." These are voters who don't have years of history
voting for one political party and they are influenced by
television commercials. And most importantly, though they
may not vote in local elections, they do vote in important
state and national elections. These voters fall squarely
into the demographic that our WB and Fox affiliates reach
most effectively. In addition, Tribune stations benefit from
the pressure political advertising puts on local spot inventory,
which gives us pricing power in the spot marketplace.
We also plan to grow distribution of Superstation WGN--one
of Tribune Broadcasting's key strategies. In April 2001,
we took over the distribution of the superstation from United
Video. Since that time, as each of our stations' retransmission
consent agreements comes up for renewal, our #1 priority
has been to secure greater distribution for the Superstation.
Since 2001, distribution has grown from 52 million to 58
million subscribers, with more homes on the way.
Dennis mentioned our transaction with
Comcast. In addition to the Chicago sports channel and
Golf Channel elements...
- we've renewed our retransmission
consent rights agreement for our local stations,
- As Comcast rolls out HDTV, Tribune
digital signals will be added to that tier,
- and, I am happy to report, Comcast
has agreed to substantially increase the number of Superstation
WGN homes on its owned and managed systems across the
country.
With the new Comcast agreement and agreements we have reached
with other cable and DBS companies, WGN will add approximately
7 million additional homes over the next four years. As you
would expect, similar negotiations with other cable companies
continue to take place, and we fully expect our scale to
prove beneficial in those discussions as well.
And while we believe it is an opportune time to monetize
our interest in the Golf Channel, we continue to own significant
stakes in the WB and the TV Food Network. These strategic
investments have also become valuable assets, and both will
make positive contributions on our equity line in 2004.
Speaking of strategic objectives, let
me wrap-up by conveying our confidence in the future of
local mass media. We will continue to build strong local
stations responsive to the communities they serve. These
stations will continue to provide compelling programming
content -- the best off-net sitcoms,
strong local news operations, and powerful, young-skewing
WB and Fox network programming. We will continue to seek
acquisitions in the Top 30 markets, and we will look to build
two-station clusters in both existing and new markets and
create value from cross-media. And as I mentioned a moment
ago, we also will grow our national cable channel Superstation
WGN, with its dual revenue stream of advertising dollars
and subscriber fees.
All in all, we are focused on growth, and well-positioned
to deliver!
Now, back to Dennis.
:: :: ::
This document contains certain comments
or forward-looking statements that are based largely on the
company's current expectations and are subject to certain
risks, trends and uncertainties. Such comments and statements
should be understood in the context of Tribune's publicly
available reports filed with the SEC, including the most current
annual report, 10-K and 10-Q, which contain a discussion of
various factors that may affect the company's business. These
factors could cause actual future performance to differ materially
from current expectations. Tribune Company is not responsible
for updating the information contained in this press release
beyond the published date, or for changes made to this document
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