
First Quarter 2006 Earnings
Conference Call
April 13, 2006
Ruthellyn Musil, SVP/Corporate Relations
Good morning, everyone,
and welcome to Tribune’s conference
call to review our 2006 first-quarter earnings results. Our
opening remarks will be brief in order to leave plenty of
time for questions and be finished within the hour. Speakers
this morning will be our CEO, Dennis FitzSimons, and Don
Grenesko, our senior vice president and CFO. Other members
of management are here for the Q&A period.
Turning to our press release, Tribune’s first-quarter
diluted EPS of $0.33 on a GAAP basis includes several special
items. Our release contains the information that will enable
you to make a meaningful comparison to First Call estimates.
Before turning the call over the Dennis, a quick reminder
that our discussions may include forward-looking statements
that are covered in greater detail in Tribune’s SEC
filings. Now here is Dennis.
Dennis FitzSimons, Chairman, President and CEO
Thanks Ruthellyn.
Good morning everyone. While there were some bright spots
in our first-quarter revenue picture, overall results continue
to reflect the challenging ad environment. But our focus
on cost control is paying off.
We will start with a closer look at publishing results,
which include our daily newspapers, our interactive businesses
and targeted publications. Total ad revenue was flat, daily
newspapers were down slightly, but interactive grew nearly
30%. Excluding Newsday, which I will talk about in a moment,
total ad revenues were up 1%.
Classified real estate was up 35% with gains in both print
and interactive and the category was especially strong in
Los Angeles and Florida. Recruitment was up in the high single
digits driven by online. Although auto was down significantly
on the print side, we saw again healthy growth online.
Increases in classified helped offset
softness in the national and retail categories. In addition
to department store consolidation, a part of the decline
in retail is due to lower preprint revenue at Newsday.
You may know that in March of last year, Newsday terminated
its relationship with an outside sales agent and some preprint
customers elected to move business to that individual’s
competing products. Bringing that business back is one
of our highest priorities.
Some of the actions Newsday has taken
-- they have improved their products and the reliability
of distribution. For example, a late week TMC product has
been added that will be mailed to single-family homes on
Long Island. There is greater transparency with advertisers
to re-establish confidence and Newsday’s
publisher and Scott Smith are each calling on key accounts.
Our targeted publications, amNewYork,
RedEye and Hoy continue to grow. Together they reach about
3 million readers per week. Revenues for these publications
- primarily from local clients who don’t advertise
in our metro daily - were up about 25% in the first
quarter.
In the national category, most of the shortfall came at
the L.A. Times and over half of their decline was due to
movie advertising, which as you know is very significant
in Los Angeles. Excluding movies, the Times ad revenue was
up slightly. In many cases it outperformed or was in-line
with the rest of our newspaper group in the first quarter.
Turning to interactive, which is the fastest-growing sector
of our business, interactive revenues were just over $50
million, up almost 30% over 2005. In 2006, interactive will
represent over 6% of total publishing ad revenues and 16%
of the classified category. When you include our share of
revenue from joint ventures such as CareerBuilder and Classified
Ventures, 2006 interactive revenue should be in the range
of $350 million.
Our web sites on average had almost
15 million monthly unique visitors in the first quarter.
That is a 32% increase over ‘05
and in part reflects the growing popularity of the differentiated
local content we provide. As broadband penetration also increases,
we will be taking advantage of our cross ownership positions
to supply news video to our newspaper web sites.
CareerBuilder continues to gain share
against Monster. CB’s
unique visitors in March were 22 million compared to 12 million
for Monster. Careerbuilder network revenues totaled
$157 million in the first quarter, up 46% year-over-year.
We’re also pleased with the performance of our other
online investments. In March, auto searches on Cars.com hit
a record high driven by more than 8.3 million unique visitors
to the site.
Turning to circulation, we made progress
in the first quarter toward our goal of stabilizing individually
paid circulation which was up 1% daily, and down 1% Sunday
versus the prior year. Total circulation was down about
3% daily and Sunday as we continue to manage down the "other
paid" category.
The "other paid" category is less valuable to
advertisers and managing it down reduces our newsprint and
distribution expenses.
On the cost side, publishing has taken
a number of steps that have improved the group’s
expense picture. FTEs this quarter are down by 1,000 year-over-year.
Compensation, excluding special charges and option expense,
is down 4%. Total cash expenses are down slightly in publishing
and new labor agreements at Newsday will reduce expenses
by about $7 million this year, with $10 million annual
savings in the years ahead.
Turning now to television, we are seeing
some encouraging developments. March was considerably better
than February where the Winter Olympics impacted our markets.
In New York, revenue at WPIX grew for the first time since
the introduction of Local People Meters. Los Angeles was
flat and Washington D.C. showed strong growth. Our Fox
stations are off to a solid 2006 fueled by the success
of "American Idol", "24", "House",
and "Prison Break". Overall first quarter revenues
were up 2% for our Fox stations and that is despite the loss
of the Super Bowl and the Daytona 500 this year. In March,
revenues for our Fox stations were up 11%.
In terms of key category performance,
telecom, education and fast food were strong. Movies were
up for the second quarter in a row as TV tends to get more
"launch" spending.
Automotive and retail remains soft.
On our WB stations, the move from kid’s
animation to off-network dramas and sitcoms on weekday
afternoon has been a positive. Demand and rates have increased
significantly in the Monday through Friday 3:00 to 5:00
time period. We have also noticed that the cable interconnects
are cooling off in many of our markets. After enjoying
double-digit growth for years, spot cable revenue has softened
recently as agencies are demanding more accountability
and local people meters clearly document the tiny ratings
delivered by individual cable nets in wired cable homes.
Competitively, this accountability is a positive for us.
Now, let me turn it over to Don and I will be back to wrap
up.
Don Grenesko SVP/Finance and Administration
Thanks, Dennis,
and good morning everyone. On a GAAP basis, our diluted earnings
per share of $0.33 compares to $0.44 per share in the first
quarter of 2005. These results include the following items.
Stock based compensation expense of $18 million or $0.04
per share as a result of adopting a new accounting standard
that requires recognition of stock option and restricted
stock expense in the income statement. Second, a pretax charge
of $19 million or $0.04 per share for severance and other
payments associated with new union contracts covering most
of the employees at Newsday. We recorded a $7 million pretax
gain or $0.01 per share related to the sale of real estate
by our publishing group. And finally, there was a non-operating
loss of $0.02 per share associated with the change in the
fair value of our PHONES and Time Warner stock.
Combined, these items reduced our earnings
by $0.09 per share in this year’s first quarter. Conversely, 2005’s
first-quarter results included a non-operating gain of $0.03
per share.
Our expense control remains tight; excluding stock based
compensation and special items, consolidated cash expenses
were down 2%. On that same basis, cash operating expenses
in publishing were down slightly as higher newsprint and
TMC postage costs were more than offset by lower compensation
and benefits expenses due to staff reductions.
In broadcasting and entertainment, the
group’s cash
operating expenses were down 4% or $10 million, most of which
relates to the Cubs.
Again, excluding stock based compensation, expenses in the
corporate office were down $1 million due to staff reductions
and other savings.
Now turning to the equity line, income
was about $7 million in the first quarter compared to $0.5
million in the first quarter of 2005. The increase reflects
improvements at the TV Food Network and Comcast SportsNet
Chicago. In addition, we’re no longer recording losses
for The WB Network.
First quarter interest expense was up 39% to $49 million
due to higher interest rates and debt levels. Excluding the
PHONES, outstanding debt stands at $2.8 billion. We also
repurchased 4.6 million shares in the first quarter and continued
deploying our capital resources to the areas of the company
that generate the most revenue.
In closing, let me add more detail on our
stock based compensation expense. The company plans to record
a total of $0.07 per share of stock based compensation for
the full year of 2006. $0.04 was recorded in the first quarter,
and $0.01 per share will be recorded in each of the next
three quarters. The first quarter was higher because stock
based awards granted to retirement eligible employees are
required to be expensed immediately.
Now with that, I will turn it back to Dennis.
Dennis FitzSimons
Okay, thanks Don. As we begin the second
quarter, we expect April ad revenues to be somewhat of a
challenge in publishing because of the timing of Easter.
That is going to work against us slightly. However, we look
for May and June to be better. Second quarter TV pacing right
now is similar to first quarter results, but we’re especially encouraged by improvements
in our biggest markets; Los Angeles pacing is positive and
so is New York when you adjust for 13 fewer New York Mets
games compared to 2005’s second quarter. Our Fox affiliates
again are up in high single digits for the quarter.
As you know, our priority is top-line growth. Our strategy
is to be the leading provider of local news and entertainment
in our markets. More specifically that means making our content
available on multiple platforms, capitalizing on scale that
we have nationally by sharing resources, expanding our current
Internet businesses, and investing in additional interactive
ventures.
Just a reminder, given our current stock price, keep in
mind that management and employees own nearly 10% of Tribune
shares outstanding. We are all intensely focused on shareholder
value. We will look to improve returns to shareholders over
the long-term through revenue improvement and continued expense
control. We have made progress and that will continue.
QUESTION AND ANSWERS
Peter Appert, Goldman Sachs
Q. Is it possible to quantify the magnitude of the Easter
swing? Can you give us any guidance on what the equity
investment line should look like on a full year basis?
I’m thinking based on the first quarter we could
see some fairly dramatic full-year improvement there?
A. The Easter swing we quantify in the high single digits.
Two percentage points swing so we probably would have been
down a little in March had it not been for the net benefit
of not having Easter in the month of March this year.
Peter Appert, Goldman Sachs
Q. I’m sorry, you said 2% impact on revenue?
A. Two or a little over. It is hard to quantify precisely,
but essentially what you get is more national and classified
revenue in the non-Easter period.
And on the equity income line, we are expecting the number
to be relatively flattish with last year and that is due
to the fact that we are assuming that there will be additional
development costs associated with new investments particularly
in the Internet area.
Peter Appert, Goldman Sachs
Q. Okay, could CareerBuilder be profitable this year, do
you think?
A. It will be closer.
Frederick Searby, JP Morgan
Q. Real estate was exceptionally strong, and it looks like
there has been a cooling recently in the Florida market.
Can you just give us an update specifically in how real
estate advertising is reacting in the classifieds as the
market starts to cool, whether there is a Goldilocks scenario?
On auto, I know cyclically it is extremely tough, but are
you noticing any secular shift out of print to pure play
online?
A. We are in a period where because homes are selling more
slowly, advertising is benefiting in Florida. We are seeing
our best real estate gains in both South Florida and Orlando
and we think that can continue for a while. People need to
move all of these homes that are on the market, whether they
are new or existing.
Automotive is a challenge because manufacturers
and dealers are still struggling as you all well know.
We were down some in national automotive, which is essentially
General Motors. They have started to promote some more.
They have a new program called Showroom which is a special
8-page section that they actually started in Chicago. We’re
looking to them to roll that out to some of our other markets
here in the second quarter. But what we are up against
is the very aggressive promotion that General Motors ran
a year ago. As far as the other auto manufacturers, we
are roughly flat year-over-year.
Frederick Searby, JP Morgan
Q. So you don’t think any of this is secular,you think
it is entirely cyclical? The real estate classifieds and
the auto?
A. Well, real estate, there will be some cyclicality, yes.
Frederick Searby, JP Morgan
Q. I meant auto classifieds.
A. Auto? We think it is cyclical, yes. You are seeing a
little movement online from print, but it is not dramatic.
On the TV side, our pacing in the automotive
category for second quarter is a little bit less than flat
but we are still, as we go forward, going to see lots of
new model launches and auto advertisers are going to continue
to need to get that message out. So we don’t see
any secular shifts away from television advertising or
newspaper advertising.
It is going to be a competitive battle for market share,
but we have been in that for quite a while.
Debra Schwartz , Credit Suisse
Q. On movie advertising, I was wondering if you could tell
us how much it was off in the quarter? And along those
same lines, how are the comps in the category as we progress
throughout the year, and do you see it stabilizing at all?
A. Movies in print were off in total about $10 million or
18% for the quarter and almost all of that was a decline
in Los Angeles where we get our biggest movie revenue. Also
the first quarter is traditionally the biggest of the year
because of the award season. And with scale back in effect
in that trade advertising, that impacted L.A. in the first
quarter. That phenomenon was just less money spent to promote
films for awards because they were not backed by studios
that had big budgets behind those movies. So that is part
of the phenomenon.
The other phenomenon in movies is, as
we’ve talked
about before, with the glut of movies, and not many great
ones, they are not running as long in the theaters. Newspaper
advertising on movies has typically been for the full run
of movies, and with shorter runs we’re getting less
advertising there. A positive that we’re working on
is we’re actually getting more pre-opening advertising
than we have gotten before. There is some recent research
that shows that newspapers follow television as the second-best
media for pre-opening awareness for movies. So we are optimistic
if we’re not going to get as long a run, is we can
get more pre-opening movie advertising. There are structural
forces at work there but we see some opportunity going forward.
On the television side, we did see an increase in the first
quarter in movie advertising. So that is a positive, but
again, television gets more of that launch advertising. It
is viewed as a better medium to launch movies.
Christa Quarles, Thomas Weisel Partners
Q. Can you give us an update on CW? I think we know what
existing programming is going to continue but is there
new programming slated and your level of excitement about
it? Could give us your CapEx and all-in cost of debt?
A. On The CW front, we’re real enthused
given that we’re going to have the best returning shows
from both networks. "Smallville", "Gilmore
Girls" from
The WB; we’re going to have "Everybody Hates
Chris" and the better shows from UPN. Now, we have
not seen the development yet of the upfront presentation,
which is May 18 for The CW. I believe, with the reduction
in actual network advertising now - there are really
only five because the Fox effort is going to be something
really completely different - I think you’re
going to hear some very good buzz about CW. Re-branding of
our stations will take place over the summertime, and yes,
we are very excited about that. We think just when you look
at the ratings of the shows that are going to come back,
we see a possibility of 25 to 30% of a rating increase on
our stations.
Christa Quarles, Thomas Weisel Partners
Q. Could you quantify the re-branding dollars?
A. No, I could not quantify that for
you right now, other than to say that with our stations,
we are doing a lot centrally. So we will not have each
of our markets doing separate graphics packages and all
that. We will centralize that. That should save us a good
amount of money on that front. But as far as the network’s effort, no, we don’t
have that information.
In terms of capital expenditures, we had $22
million of CapEx in the first quarter. That is relatively
low compared to what we have had in the past but we are still
expecting to spend in the $200 to $220 million range for
the full year. We will have some larger projects that
will begin shortly and in the past our CapEx has tended
to skew more towards the second half of the year.
In terms of our debt, our cost on commercial
paper is currently 4.8%, 4.9% and our fixed rate debt is
in the high 5% at this point in time.
Paul Ginocchio, Deutsche Bank
Q. Could you give us the classified breakout for March growth?
Individually paid circulation looked good in the first quarter.
Can you maybe just give us a view of what has changed, what
you have done and how that looks going forward?
A. So for March, auto classified was down
9%, help wanted up 12%, real estate up 47% in March. And
in terms of circulation, we talked for a year now about our
focus on improving individually paid circulation, essentially
getting to a stable picture there, very much tied to the
readership generated by that; strong home delivery and single-copy
base and also where the value is for advertisers.
We, as you heard through the numbers
that Dennis sited, are very close to stable, up 1 daily,
down 1 Sunday on individually paid. Our goal is to sustain
that over time through a blend of smart marketing. We
have significantly improved retention of orders. Our churn
on circulation is down under 50% groupwide now, which is
a significant improvement over the last year or so. And also,
continued editorial innovation, so we are delivering really
interesting newspapers, relevant in people’s lives
with a lot of local focus. Again, it’s all the competing
media that we face today.
Paul Ginocchio, Deutsche Bank
Q. So it is safe to assume that L.A. is similar to the group.
What papers are strong and what are weak within that?
A. Without going into a lot of detail, L.A.
is actually better than the group totals, year-over-year,
as is Chicago. So our two biggest markets are the two that
are doing the best in this regard.
Edward Atorino, Benchmark
Q. Could you repeat the March classified numbers for auto,
real estate and help wanted? It was a little garbled, sorry.
A. Auto, down 9%; help wanted up 12%; real
estate, up 47%.
Alexia Quadrani, Bear Stearns
Q. Could you give us the preprint revenue growth for the
three major markets? And then with regards to Newsday,
your comments on the preprint side there, when would you
expect to see some improvement given the initiatives you
have taken in the first quarter?
Given your comments about the stock price and the ownership
and use of cash, should we assume that we will see sort of
the same amount of share buyback that we saw in this quarter
going throughout the year?
A. Preprints were up in both Los Angeles and Chicago in
the first quarter, and they were down significantly in New
York and on Long Island. As we said, that decline was a significant
impact on the groupwide preprint total. The decline there
was on the order of 28% year-over-year. So that more than
offset fairly normal growth in Chicago, L.A., and our other
markets.
In terms of what we are doing. What Newsday management,
with the circulation issues that we had, needed to do was
stabilize. They had to repair and now they are rebuilding
relationships with clients as well as convincing those clients
that the distribution issues are behind us. And we have put
a lot of emphasis on that. There are a few accounts -- there
is one that just came in yesterday that was taken back from
our competitor who used to be our sales agent. So that is
good, and there is a lot of emphasis, a lot of sales incentives
that had been put on the table to make that trend continue.
But look, this is a competitive situation,
and again, we are just finishing the repair cycle and now
we are in the rebuilding cycle at Newsday.
Alexia Quadrani, Bear Stearns
Q. And on share buybacks?
A. On share buybacks, we purchased $138 million worth of
stock in the first quarter and our plan is to do in the 350,
400 million range for the full year.
John Janedis, Banc of America Securities
Q. I know you’re pretty excited about the CW but can
you give us some sort of idea about when we should start
to see an uptick? Meaning, would it be essentially in September
when the launch comes, as opposed to November sweeps, or
is it an ‘07 event?
A. It is sort of tough to predict that exactly, but we would
suggest in the fourth quarter. The good news is from a market
perspective, we are seeing particularly, L.A. and New York
tighten up a little bit which enables sort of more pricing
discipline and rate structures to improve. These markets
were really impacted by the Local People Meters; advertisers
pulled back a little bit and now, things seem to be normalizing
a little bit.
So you add that situation to what should
be a better primetime ratings, accepted shows, it’s not like we’re
going to have a whole bunch of new shows that advertisers
would wait to see how they do. These shows have an established
track record and particularly some of the UPN shows that
will be replacing the weaker WB shows have a strong urban
appeal. So they are going to do better in some of the major
markets. So I would say in fourth quarter, we should definitely
see an uptick in primetime revenue. And hopefully that is
going to be supported by strength in those markets.
John Janedis, Banc of America Securities
Q. On circulation, can you just talk more about your pricing
strategy? You’ve have been discounting, I guess maybe
for almost a year or so, but as you anniversary against
them, how much of a risk do you think you run for increased
churn or pressure for higher discounts?
A. Well, what we do is a fairly sophisticated
analysis of pricing by customer behavior and in effect
segment pricing so where we can charge full price, we do.
But where it is fairly clear from a customer’s history
that they will buy at a discount and stay with us at a
discount, we will continue that rather than incur a much
higher cost to sell a new customer at a discount and then
have to replace them over time.
So we think the churn will stay down, but the likelihood
that we need to continue to do selective discounting for
some customers is high. That is just the nature of the competitive
world we are in where so much in the way of news media is
free to the consumer. But the net contribution, revenue less
cost of acquisition and service, from those customers is
improving.
John Janedis, Banc of America Securities
Q. Can you give us some sort of idea of in the markets that
you are discounting in, what percentage of the circulation
base is receiving a discount?
A. It varies widely, and what we would
tell you is in almost all of our markets, we’re the highest priced newspaper
in that market. So our discounted price may still be higher
than a competitor’s full price. So it is not particularly
useful to think of it in terms of what is the discount, it
is far more useful to think of it in terms of what is the
realized price per subscriber that you are getting.
Lisa Monaco, Morgan Stanley
Q. Could you just give us the percent change in total ad
revenue for the top three markets? And then just a nit-picky
question, can you give us some color on the thinking behind
the revenue restatements for the three ad categories? Thanks.
A. The top three markets for the quarter:
L.A. was down about 3%; essentially all of the decline in
national advertising mostly movies. They were up 2% in retail
and up 8% in classified. So it is clearly a movie driven
issue there. Chicago was up 1%, and Newsday was down 6%.
And again, that is almost entirely a preprint driven issue.
Their performance at other categories in Newsday was reasonably
good.
Lisa Monaco, Morgan Stanley
Q. Could you just explain the restatement of the three ad
categories? It looks like retail was restated up a little
bit; national was restated down; and classified was restated
up a bit.
A. Are you referring to the revenue report, the footnote
at the bottom? That was simply moving certain categories.
There was no bottom-line impact as the footnote said. It
was really to conform from one presentation to another, no
affect on total revenue.
It was a very slight restatement, but this
has happened over time where there is not an absolute line.
What category a customer belongs in and we try to get it
as consistent as we can across all our papers -- occasionally
do fine tuning.
Lauren Fine, Merrill Lynch
Q. On the television side, any hope for any political at
all in the next few months? I’m also wondering with
the transition to The CW if you think there is any short-term
risk to revenue of the advertisers who don’t feel
they have to be as committed short-term until the new network
is launched?
On the cost side, would you go through
a little bit more detail in broadcasting? It was really
good performance on cost. Where were the cuts in other
and if you could break down the decline in compensation
there in other costs and what is sustainable and what isn’t
for the next few quarters?
A. On the political front, not real big for us in Q1, just
a couple of million dollars, really. And then full year,
we would expect to be somewhere in the area of $25 million.
Again, as you know, not as big an impact for us as some of
the traditional big three network affiliates. But still,
significant in that our markets again tightened up.
As far as the decline in compensation. It was 4% in first
quarter on the publishing side.
Lauren Fine, Merrill Lynch
Q. I guess the question is on the cost performance overall.
Within broadcasting, how much of that is sustainable? Excluding
programming, the cost performance looked quite good. And
I’m just curious, if you can continue that performance
going forward.
A. Yes, we expect to be able to continue that performance
through the rest of the year.
Lauren Fine, Merrill Lynch
Q. The other question was on any potential near-term revenue
risk with the transition to The CW?
A. I don’t think so. We actually have more first-run
programming on The WB because they needed to get these shows,
that prior to announcing the shutdown of The WB they were
holding back to avoid the amortization costs, on the air.
So now, they are running all of that original programming
so that is a bit of an advantage for us. And we don’t
see any advertisers that seem to be pulling back at this
point. So again there is a lot of anticipation on The CW.
The WB is running its course, and a
lot depends on the tightening of the markets and we see
that happening in the major markets. It feels a little
bit better out there, but we’re not
going to predict anything. From what we’re hearing
from our salespeople the markets are tightening up a little
bit and that’s good. And political will help that.
Michael Kupinski, A.G. Edwards
Q. Just following up on the expense outlook. I have somewhere
in my notes that you were anticipating that publishing
expenses were going to be flat for the year. I was wondering
if you have any update on the expense guidance for that
segment?
Then the classified advertising linage versus the revenues
being up 8.4%. I was just wondering if you could just talk
a little bit about the classified pricing and the differential
between the linage numbers and the revenue numbers? And if
there was anything special going on there online?
Finally, if there is any update on CareerBuilder and the
situation with Knight Ridder and that stake there?
A. First of all on the expense side
for publishing, those numbers will remain flat for the
year. On the CareerBuilder front, it really wouldn’t
be appropriate for us to comment on those discussions regarding
the Knight Ridder ownership stake in CareerBuilder.
On your third question, you were looking
at the revenue growth and classified relative to the linage
growth. You see that revenue grew, for example, for the
quarter, 8%, and full run inches grew 11%. What you get
is just some real mix issues there. With the categories
performing as differently as I described in terms of revenue,
you get very different rates. You’ve also got a blend where some categories
like real estate will run more part run. Then for example,
help wanted, that’s almost all full run. So we can
go off line and give you a little more of that feel, but
it is all in a mix question.
What we have also said is most of the
growth in classified, other than real estate, is online.
It is true in auto, it is true in recruitment. And what
we’re essentially
doing is looking at how do we manage where we sell those
in a bundled basis, the combined price of print and online.
So it is a competitive offering in the marketplace that creates
the solutions that customers are looking for.
Michael Kupinski, A.G. Edwards
Q. But it seems like you are getting a little bit better
pricing at this point online. Is that true?
A. The online pricing is growing. I
would say in auto, it is clearly up whereas in print because
dealers are struggling we’re holding rates flat or
lowered them a little bit to get more frequency and help
them rebuild their businesses. So we really price to the
market demand in these cases.
Michael Kupinski, A.G. Edwards
Q. Some are suggesting that with General Motors and a few
others kind of moving more towards traditional incentive
type advertising that the dealers now are more incentivized
to advertise? Are you seeing any visibility on that front?
A. Well, if you just look at the trend,
we don’t like
down 9% in terms of dealer advertising. But that is a much
smaller decline than late last year. So I think that would
support your premise at least in terms of the direction it’s
headed.
Craig Huber, Lehman Brothers
Q. I missed what you said, how many shares you bought back
in the quarter? Also, I think you said you plan on buying
back $350 to $400 million of stock this year. I was just
curious, given your unhappiness with your stock price and
you mentioned you had $1 billion share buyback you announced
in December, why you’re not going to exhaust the
whole $1 billion perhaps this year? Are you running into
something on your debt front you are uncomfortable getting
a whole lot more debt here?
A. We repurchased $138 million worth
of our stock in the first quarter. That was the number
and as you have it right there, we’re looking to
do $350 to $400 million for the full year. You know, we
continue to evaluate this, but we have to also look at
our share repurchases with regard to what we are going
to do with Internet related investments and acquisitions,
so we still want to maintain some flexibility there to
be able to do additional acquisitions.
Craig Huber, Lehman Brothers
Q. How many shares was that exactly in the quarter?
A. 4.6 million shares.
Craig Huber, Lehman Brothers
Q. Your adjusted non-newsprint cash cost in the first quarter,
adjusted for the onetime items including stock options
for your newspapers, how much was that down again? Was
that down 1%, 2%?
A. Yes, at least. Newsprint costs were up
$7 million, and total cash expenses in publishing, excluding
the non-recurring stuff, were down $2 million, so in total
down $9 million and excluding newsprint that would be 1%
or 2%. You are right on the money.
Craig Huber, Lehman Brothers
Q. If you could, could you just comment on your outlook here
for wireless and telecom? In the write up, it sounded like
it did better here in the first quarter. What are your
thoughts on the second quarter?
A. It continues to pace well in broadcasting. And in publishing
we were up in the first quarter, having largely cycled the
last round of mergers. Again, newspapers tend to be a great
medium for promoting not only wireless, but all of the new
services coming in the telecom area, and so we see the outlook
maybe a little choppy, but promising.
William Bird, Citigroup
Q. In publishing, just wondering if you have seen the full
positive impact of enhanced color in L.A. and Chicago?
And bigger picture, given the stock’s performance,
how do you think about driving value beyond delivering
better results?
A. So on color, in Los Angeles, we have
all of the color capacity available now but there is still
more potential to sell additional color ads at premium
prices. So we see more upside coming in L.A. In Chicago,
we are only about two-thirds done with the color enhancement
project there. So it won’t be available until the
third quarter to sell final run in color. And where we
also are going to be able to go from four final run sections
to six so there is much more color upside coming in Chicago,
starting later this year.
On your second question, could you just clarify what you
were thinking about there?
William Bird, Citigroup
Q. Yes, I guess I am just curious what your thoughts are
on creative ways to surface value at the company, beyond
cutting costs and beyond some of the operational adjustments
that you’re making?
A. As we have said in the past, we always
look at our portfolio of assets and make decisions if there
are things we can do in terms of divestitures. We will
continue to look at that, but it seems to us that investors
are looking for results and that is what we are trying
to deliver. You know our biggest priority is to get our
top-line growing. In the meantime, we’re going to
be very tough on expenses.
But again, if there is a divestiture
that really makes sense that we feel that will provide
value to shareholders, we will do it. But in the environment
with media companies and multiple compressions, we have
not seen prices that make up for the tax bite because of
our low basis in many other assets. So we will continue
looking. We continue to have conversations, but at this
point, we’re focused on
results. We seem to be in a show-me market; people want to
see results and that is what we want to deliver.
William Bird, Citigroup
Q. Just a follow-on, in TV, I was curious if there are any
other upcoming LPM rollouts in your markets?
A. The next one will be Atlanta. We have cycled through
New York, L.A., Chicago, Washington, Dallas, has been the
other one, and Philadelphia. And Atlanta will be the next.
Thomas
Russo, Gardner, Russo & Gardner
Q. On the newspaper front, could you address your experience
in the free daily markets in Chicago and New York? How
it’s fairing? Also how you are responding in other
markets where people may have launched free dailies against
you, the metro type papers?
A. Our experience with amNew York and
the RedEye edition in Chicago has been very positive. First,
from a reader point of view, we are generating lots of
fresh new readership that overlaps some with core newspaper
readership, but is really expanding our audience very much
in the ways that we would like to. We’ve got between those two markets, something
in the neighborhood of 2 million readers every week. So that
is working well. So revenue in terms of advertising is building
in a very healthy way and again, it’s lots of advertisers
that don’t advertise in our core dailies partially
because they are more affordable and partially because you
deliver an audience that tends to skew somewhat younger.
So we are generating very healthy revenue
growth and we see that continuing in these two markets.
We are considering whether there are other markets where
free compact dailies makes sense. I haven’t come to final conclusions on
that, but we really aren’t facing direct competition
from free dailies in our other markets in any significant
way at this time.
Thomas
Russo, Gardner, Russo & Gardner
Q. Early on when Don referred to both the repurchase of 4.2
million shares, I think he said you’re going to direct
resources to areas that generate the most revenues and
I am not sure that I heard that right and if so, I wanted
to know what you had in mind.
A. We wanted to keep some flexibility to make Internet acquisitions,
businesses that relate to our existing businesses and as
we see advertising migrating to online, we want to be able
to have a greater position in online. As we look three years
out, we want to have a significantly higher percentage of
our business coming from online related businesses and we
have found the model of a network and local affiliate relationship
like CareerBuilder to be a very positive model, just as it
is on the broadcast side of our business. So we will look
to make acquisitions in that area that have a national footprint,
but we, as local affiliates, with the strength in our markets
can sell into those national networks.
Thomas
Russo, Gardner, Russo & Gardner
Q. And do you have any sense as to where that share of revenues
might end up within say five or ten years, just projecting
out your Internet share of total newspaper?
A. In three years, we would like to see that percentage
double to 12%. I would say that is a minimum goal.
Larry Haverty, GAMCO
Q. Can you tell me what your cash tax rate is right now?
A. It is around 39.5%
Larry Haverty, GAMCO
Q. So your current yield is somewhere in the neighborhood
of 255 right now? And if we gross up the current yield
for your cash tax rate, that brings it up to somewhere
around 360, okay, plus or minus. So you said your average
commercial paper rate is 4.9%, so let’s say your
marginal rate is somewhere around 5.2. So you can basically
buy your stock and the dividend finances two-thirds of
the share repurchased price, so your actual real cost on
buying the stock is around 1.6 and depending on how you
value these hidden assets, your cash flow yield is somewhere
between 10 and 12. So you borrow at 1.6 and buy something
at 10, 12. Why are you doing anything else? This is just
an extraordinary relationship. I have seen it in the past,
the most recent example, May Department Stores. It just
opens the window for predators to come in. Your stock price
and your dividend are incompatible. Can you deal with that
question?
A. Well, we continue to take a hard
look in this area and I think you’re absolutely right,
we continue to feel very strongly that our stock price
is undervalued.
Larry Haverty, GAMCO
Q. But, a $400 million program is just chump change given
the economics that I just outlined which are not conjectural.
They are factual.
A. Again, we are trying to have some balance and some blend
between share repurchases and acquisitions and investments
in the Internet area..
Larry Haverty, GAMCO
Q. But look, Internet investments are going at a 25, 30 multiple,
okay? You would like to do it, but the market said you
can’t. So I don’t get that either.
A. We appreciate your view on this.
This is something we talk to our board about all the time.
We look for opportunities, but we are in a business where
we can add value to Internet investments with our existing
promotional platform, and we think that is part of our
future. We think we’ve been
pretty prudent about it and we have not gone for something
really big that has not worked. We believe our stock is a
good value for us to repurchase and we will continue to do
that.
James Goss, Barrington Research
Q. You made a comment earlier that spot cable revenues have
fallen and people meter accountability might play into
that. And I was wondering if that does provide an opportunity
in all of your areas -- publishing, radio, TV -- and
if so, how you are attempting to capitalize on that?
Also, about a year or so ago, I think
you began a collaborative total market coverage effort
effectively in Southern California led by the L.A. Times.
I was wondering if you could give an update on the degree
of success that it’s having
and how meaningful that might be?
Finally, you might touch on the Washington
update, given that there seem to be problems getting the
fifth FCC Commissioner lined up and also Kevin Martin’s
comments and the implications that might have.
A. The local sales issue. What we expected
would happen in terms of the local cable interconnects
has happened. That is now that Local People Meters rate
the actual interconnect, and that is not the full cable
network rating in a market but what percentage of that
is wired cable and what actually is the rating of the interconnect.
Once you discount satellite, if there is telco in the market,
that different type of distribution which advertisers don’t have access to. So agencies
are now looking at this and saying, okay, this is what I’m
actually getting. So that will reduce the rates they are
willing to pay for interconnect inventory.
That is an advantage. It’s a disadvantage for the
cable interconnects and a competitive advantage for us. On
the TV side, it makes their sell-out levels go higher if
they are going to generate the same kind of revenues. Because
the interconnects have been competing against newspapers,
we are all battling for the same advertiser dollars. So if
somebody’s ratings go down, their overall advertising
revenue share should also go down.
We just have continued sales training
on how to sell against other media. So we compete against
each other when we have newspaper and television in the
same market, but we also will try to sell on a combined
basis where it makes sense. If there is creative packaging
that can be done, we believe that gives us an edge. But
it must be creative and offer value to the advertiser that
doesn’t cost us a lot
in terms of discounting.
Let me just deal with the Washington part of your question.
And that is, we are not sure when the third Republican commissioner
is going to be approved. My latest information is that Senator
Rockefeller has a hold on the confirmation of the new commissioner.
We spent three or four hours with Kevin Martin when he was
in for NAA, and Kevin is not sure when this is going to happen.
He said on his optimistic days he thinks this could happen
in a few weeks. On his less optimistic days, it could happen
at the end of the year when all of these things get traded
by the legislators.
So we would say if there is going to
be relief, and the chairman was very vocal, very open about
his belief that there should be relief in major markets
on cross ownership, we would look to that to happen in ‘07
at this point.
On the value network I would say a year
later, it has been a net plus, but on balance a relatively
modest one. The premise of newspapers coming together to
offer very efficient preprint delivery between in paper
and mail is a solid idea. We’re
the linchpin of that network, delivering something over two-thirds
of all of the homes in that network as it is. There have
not been big clients either move to the network or from the
network to competitors like ADVO, and the gains we have made
have frankly been mostly gains through our own direct sales,
not gains through the network as a whole. So there has been
a little bit of extra growth there, nothing huge one way
or another.
:: :: ::
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