
Second Quarter 2006 Earnings
Conference Call
July 13, 2006
Ruthellyn Musil, Senior Vice President/Corporate Relations
Good morning and welcome to our conference call to review
2006 second quarter result. Our opening remarks will be
brief and then we will take your questions. We plan to
finish within the hour as is our regular practice. Speakers
this morning will be our CEO, Dennis FitzSimons and Don
Grenesko, our senior vice president and chief financial
officer. Other members of management are also here for
Q&A.
Turning quickly to our press release,
Tribune’s second
quarter diluted EPS from continuing operations of $0.53 on
a GAAP basis includes a couple of non-operating items. Our
release contains the information so you can make a meaningful
comparison to First Call estimates.
Before turning the call over to Dennis,
just a quick reminder that our discussion may include forward-looking
statements that are covered in greater detail in Tribune’s
SEC filings.
Now here’s Dennis.
Dennis FitzSimons, Chairman, President and Chief Executive
Officer
Thanks, Ruthellyn, and good morning everyone. Before talking
about second quarter result, let me just recap some key events
of the quarter.
As you know, we have embarked on an aggressive and deliberate
program to realize improved value for all Tribune shareholders.
There are three points to that program and we made substantial
progress in all fronts. So, let me briefly cover first the
recapitalization, second sales of non-core assets, and then
third our plan for improving performance at our newspapers
and TV stations.
On the recap -- yesterday, as planned, we purchased 10 million
shares from the McCormick Tribune Foundation at a price of
$32.50. Along with the successful completion of our tender
offer on June 26th for about 45 million shares, our leveraged
recapitalization is on track. Our intention is to now repurchase
the final 20 million shares on the open market by the end
of the year.
We are also moving aggressively on the
sale of non-core assets. As you know, we’ve already announced the sale
of our Atlanta and Albany TV stations. We recently sold a
majority of our Time Warner stock not tied to the PHONES.
We are also making progress on the sale of the LA Times’,
San Fernando real estate and a few smaller assets. So, at
this point, we have identified more than $300 million of
our $500 million target.
This is just step one. As we have said before, step two
is about improving operating performance of our newspapers
and televisions stations over time. As you can see from our
second quarter results and recent news from the network and
cable upfront, our near term advertising environment remains
challenging.
Going to results, in publishing, revenues
were even with last year. Although the Easter holiday falling
in March this year had a small negative impact, we saw
strength that many of our newspapers -- particularly in
Florida -- and
the L.A. Times was up slightly. But this was offset by continued
weakness in Newsday’s preprints. Excluding Newsday,
total ad revenues were up 2%.
Let me cover the situation on Long Island. As you know,
in March of 2005, Newsday severed the relationship with an
outside sales agent over an ethical breach and that sales
agent took some clients with him. So, we regaining the preprint
customers that Newsday lost has been a top priority.
Now the efforts of Newsday’s sales
team are paying off. Walbaums, a large grocery client,
will be back in Newsday starting next week for exclusive
preprint distribution on Long Island and most of New York
City. This is an important breakthrough in that Walbaums
is a major client. And the Newsday ad sales group will
use this momentum to bring other clients back. In addition,
they will begin the cycle through this preprint issue in
the third quarter.
On the interactive front, we continue
to show strong growth. Second quarter revenues are up 27%
over last year. In addition, Tribune Interactive’s
online traffic was up 24% year-over-year during the second
quarter. Our network of more than 50 websites averaged
over 14 million average monthly unique visitors during
the quarter.
CareerBuilder had a great second quarter
with network and affiliate revenues up 42% over last year.
CB reached 22 million unique visitors in June and it had
a 40% share of total listings compared to Monster’s
37%. And we continue to have positive discussions with
McClatchy about their newspapers participating in CareerBuilder.
Expense controls remain tight. Publishing cash operating
expenses were about flat for the second quarter compared
to 2005 and that is despite a 12% increase in newsprint prices.
FTEs in the quarter were down about 1,100, or 6% from last
year.
Turning to broadcasting, second quarter revenue for the
TV group was down 1%. Several stations finished the quarter
ahead of last year. This includes L.A., which was up in the
high-single digits, and several of our six Fox stations.
And given the current ad market and pacing, we expect third
quarter TV revenue to be down in the low-single digits with
July being the weakest and September the strongest month.
In its inaugural upfront again in that
relatively soft network environment, The CW had a good
sales performance, which was in line with management’s expectations. While we don’t
benefit from upfront sales, it is certainly a good indication
of the confidence that advertisers have in the CW. Our station
group will benefit from a schedule that will combine the
best of the WB and UPN. We feel that ratings increases in
the 25% range are very achievable.
Our Philadelphia and Seattle stations
will not be CW affiliates. They will be affiliated with
Fox’s MyNetworkTV beginning
this fall. And at the same time, we’ve also extended
the term of our six existing FOX affiliates or those agreements
through June 2012.
On that note, let me turn it over to Don for
some additional detail on the quarter.
Donald Grenesko, Senior Vice President/Finance and Administration
Thanks Dennis and good morning everyone. On a GAAP basis,
our diluted earnings per share from continuing operations
of $0.53 compares with $0.72 in the second quarter of 2005.
These results include the following items: stock-based
compensation expense of $5 million or $0.01 per share;
a gain of $0.01 per share related to our portion of a one-time
favorable income tax adjustment recorded at CareerBuilder;
and a non-operating loss of $0.03 per share associated
primarily with a change in the fair value of our PHONES
and Time Warner stock.
Combined, these items reduced our earnings
by $0.03 per share in this year second quarter. Conversely,
2005’s
second quarter results included a non-operating gain of $0.13
per share.
Because of the pending sale of our Atlanta
and Albany TV stations, operating results for these stations
have been reclassified as discontinued operations. As noted
in our press release, these sales are expected to result
in a $90 million pre-tax book loss, included in discontinued
operations, almost all of which relates to a portion of
the TV group’s
goodwill being allocated to these stations. Nevertheless,
the $200 million of gross sale proceeds was a very attractive
multiple of cash flow.
Our expense control remains tight, excluding stock-based
compensation and special items, consolidated cash expenses
are about flat.
Turning to some additional detail at publishing, classified
real estate was up 29% in the second quarter with strong
gains in both print and interactive. Los Angeles and Florida
continued to be our strongest markets as we saw in the first
quarter.
Auto tends were also similar to the first quarter, down
on the print side with healthy growth online. Recruitment
was off about 3% this quarter because of declines in print.
Online showed good growth across almost all markets.
Retail trends improved versus the first quarter with most
of the upside in LA. National was down due to lower movie
and auto advertising.
Looking at the major markets, Chicago was lower due to national
auto and financial advertising, two categories which had
a very good performance a year ago. LA was up slightly for
the quarter, with strength in real estate and retail advertising.
As Dennis mentioned, Newsday continues to be impacted by
preprints, and weakness in classified auto.
Circulation revenues fell by 5% for the quarter as individually
paid did not perform quite as well as it did earlier in the
year. We expect third quarter results to be a little better,
consistent with our goal of stabilizing individually paid
circulation.
Cash operating expenses in publishing were flat, excluding
stock based compensation and special items. Higher newsprint
and TMC postage costs were more than offset by lower compensation
and benefit expenses primarily due to staff reductions.
Turning briefly to broadcasting and entertainment,
the group’s
cash operating expenses were up 3% or $8 million primarily
due to higher programming costs.
Corporate office expenses, excluding stock-based compensation
expense were down a $0.5 million due to staff reductions
and other savings.
Turning to the equity line, income was about $26 million
in the second quarter, compared to $12 million in the second
quarter of 2005. The increase reflects improvements at the
TV Food Network and CareerBuilder and includes a $5.9 million,
one-time favorable income tax adjustment related to CareerBuilder.
In addition, we are no longer recording losses for the WB
Network.
Second quarter interest expense rose by 34% to $47 million
due to higher interest rates and debt levels. Excluding the
PHONES, debt totaled 2.6 billion at the end of the second
quarter and now stands at $4.4 billion following the 55 million
shares we just repurchased.
And with that I will turn it back to Dennis.
Dennis FitzSimons
Okay, thanks Don. So, in closing, let me just go back to
our next steps following the share repurchase. It’s
clear that the key for us is top-line revenue growth and
we have initiatives in place designed to make that happen.
Our plans also call for $200 million in cost savings over
the next 24 months. But let me stress there is more to
this plan than just cutting costs. We intend to redeploy
resources to reinvest for growth in interactive as well
as at our newspapers and targeted print products.
Our Internet strategy is to build a portfolio of rapidly
growing successful online businesses using a proven national
network/local affiliate model. We have a track record of
success in this, as demonstrated by CareerBuilder.
In addition, we intend to make our local newspaper sites
more robust including increased use of video and user-generated
content. We intend to expand Metromix, an entertainment vertical
has been very successful here in Chicago, to other markets,
and acquire additional businesses like ForSaleByOwner.com
that will add to our portfolio of faster growing Internet
businesses.
As we said before, by 2010, we expect
to more than double the percentage of publishing ad revenue
coming from our fast growing Internet businesses to the
12-15% range. We will reinvest for newspaper and targeted
print growth as we’ve
done with RedEye and AMNew York. Combined revenues for those
two publications were up 45% last year.
Finally, we are also now better positioned
for future years in TV. In addition to the launch of The
CW, this fall, we recently announced the purchase for fall
2007 of "Two
and a Half Men" and "Family Guy." Both
of these shows target the difficult to reach young male demo.
John Reardon and his group did this in a very disciplined
way, so our programming expense increases will be very modest.
So, while we are focused on quarterly results certainly,
you also know that executing our longer-term growth plan
will be essential for our success. Our major market newspapers
and TV stations provide a great foundation for our growing
interactive business while at the same time delivering the
mass audience that we believe will always be important for
advertisers.
Now, we’d be happy to take your
questions.
QUESTION AND ANSWERS
Lauren Fine, Merrill Lynch
Q. On the newspaper side, I’m wondering if you have
any sort of interpretation of what’s happening in help
wanted throughout the industry, where it seems to be weakening.
If you think is just a blip in near-term and it is going
to strengthen again or if we’re just looking at weakness
going forward. And then I’m wondering if you could
isolate what the decline was in print ad revenues for the
quarter?
A. In terms of help wanted what you’re describing
seems to be a fairly broad trend across the industry where,
particularly print revenue and volume is down somewhat. There
are some hot job markets still, but in general it seems like
job creation has slowed. That’s certainly a factor.
And also you’ve seen continued migration, as we knew
would happen from print help wanted ads to online. So, those
are the factors driving it. In effect, our inbound call volume
for print advertising is down. We’re working to offset
that through much more aggressive outbound calling both for
print ads and bundled. We are also starting to package print
packs of ads much as we do online. So, we see some steps
we can take that will improve that trend.
Q. Can you talk about the relative pricing between print
and online for help wanted?
A. What we have done is aggressively raise online prices;
the print price is relatively stable. If you look at a big
market today you will see an average print ad cost about
what average online ad costs.
You also asked about print ad growth
versus online. What you see is we’re flat year-to-date in terms of our
overall ad revenue we’ve said. Online is up in the
high 20% range, that means print revenue alone is down about
2%, again mostly driven by the decline in preprint at Newsday.
Q. My last question has to do with the equity income line,
if you would exclude that almost $6 million from CareerBuilder
what looks like kind of an $8 million increase year-over-year,
can you isolate the pieces of that in terms of the improvement
of Food Network, not recording loss of WB and then presumably
the improvement of CareerBuilder as well?
A. Well, all three are positive.
Q. I mean if you would look at $8 million, how would you
allocate it across those three in terms of the improvement?
A. The largest improvement would be
at the TV Food Network, followed by the fact that we didn’t
have any losses that we are recognizing at the WB and then
CareerBuilder.
Steven Barlow, Prudential Equity Group
Q.
Can you talk a little bit more about your programming expenses
on television, how it’s
going to look for the rest of this year? And you just talk
about what you paid for "Family Guy" and "Two
and a Half Men" and
what that would do to your expense potentially in ‘07?
And then Don, if you could just help us on what is the right
amortization, depreciation numbers we should use after the
sale of Albany and Atlanta?
A. On broadcast rights, we’re up mid-to-high-single
digits this year. As you know, we do accelerated amortization.
We had in our future projections what we are going to pay
for both first run programming and off-network programming.
"Family Guy" and "Two and a Half Men" were
both group deals. These shows have come in actually below
what we had originally projected. So, we paid good prices,
but on the other hand that’s going to lead for us to
very modest increases, actually lower than what we are seeing
this year, considerably lower on the program expense line
for broadcasting.
Q. And then the rest of this year should be about what we
have already seen this year?
A. Yes, that’s correct.
And in terms of the amortization and
depreciation, the two TV stations, it is really relatively
modest piece. There’s
no real impact there. I would say that again, we moved these
two stations into discontinued operations. So I think you
can see some from the footnotes that $3.2 million of after-tax
profit was moved from continuing operations over to discontinued.
So, obviously that will have an impact on the second half
also.
Lisa Monaco, Morgan Stanley
Q. Could you just give us a little bit more color in the
circulation trends in 2Q and just a little bit more going
forward, how we should think about volume versus circulation
revenue? And then secondly, just on the newspaper side, can
you rank the top 3 markets in terms of margins?
A. On circulation, first let me go back
to the March ABC reports where we reported individually
paid circulation down about half a point daily and down
1% Sunday, with home delivery up across our markets in
total. Second quarter results were slightly worse than
that. As Don said, we expect third quarter results on individually
paid to be a little better due to the timing of circulation
sales program. And overall, we made lots of progress stabilizing
individually paid circulations, home delivery plus single
copy, circulation that advertisers value the most. But
you are also seeing, and as we described to you as well
as advertisers, is a continued reduction in other paid
circulation. So, total circulation will continue to show
bigger declines than individually paid through year-end.
That’s largely a reduction in hotel copies and some
NIE in Los Angeles. So LA alone in the other paid category
is impacting the group totals by 2 to 3% through about year-end.
In terms of revenues, you see it down around 5%, that’s
a combination of the modest individually paid declines and,
as we’ve said, selective discounting essentially to
improve our retention of subscribers. Churn continues to
decrease. We would expect the circulation revenue trend to
improve a little bit in the second half of the year, but
still not likely to get the positive territory.
A. On margins, the top three would be our two Florida papers
and Chicago.
Q. And then just following upon the circulation, have you
seen any more additional pressure on ad rates from advertisers?
A. It is the normal give-and-take with
advertisers who always prefer not to pay more, but as we’ve
said previously, with individually paid circulation in
relatively stable territory, our good audience story in
terms of demographics, the responsiveness of newspaper
advertising, it is a very competitive marketplace, but
we are not seeing anything outside the ordinary in that
regard.
Craig Huber, Lehman Brothers
Q. Can you just give us in your newsprint division, your
non-newsprint cash cost with percent change in the quarter
and then also for newsprint consumption and the price change
year-over-year?
A. Newsprint is easier and I will get to the other number.
So essentially on newsprint it was prices up about 12%, volume
on the same basis weight, down about 7%.
Q. Do you have some sales on some real estate, did you say
you already closed that or is it just up to sale right now?
And if so, can you quantify that if it is actually been sold?
A. Yes, what we mentioned was the San
Fernando real estate. So, we closed the plant in Los Angeles
and that’s up
for sale, bids are expected this quarter, within the next
month.
In terms of other newspaper cash costs, compensation, pre-stock
option expense is down 2%, and all other cash expenses are
flat which is essentially growth in postage and all other
costs down.
Q. And then on auto cost side. Are you guys seeing any light
at the end of the tunnel here at all as you talked to the
various auto dealers in your markets and so forth? Or you
are expecting this just to continue here for the next New
Year plus? Any idea there?
A. Well, it is still are really challenging environment
for auto dealers, particularly domestic dealers. What you
will see is we will start running against lower revenue a
year-ago. But we are not seeing any big signs of pickup in
that regard. You clearly got the situation with the domestic
manufacturers where Chrysler did offer some, significant
discounts, but GM and Ford have only done very limited programs.
And if they continue on that pace, its hard to see where
there is a lot of light in that tunnel soon realistically.
But we are working very creatively with auto dealers both
print and online packages that help them move inventory.
Q. And then would you also say that
July newspaper is similar to June or is it similar to May
or what’s your though
there?
A. Well, what you have seen clearly is choppy trends as
we described all along. And I would say the July trends are
more like our year-to-date trend, which is essentially flat.
William Bird, Citigroup
Q. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about
your strategy for bridging the growth gap at Newsday? And
also I was wondering if you could quantify what the growth
rate looks like in online help wanted ad revenues?
A. At Newsday, as Dennis described our
top priority revenue wise is to rebuild our preprint business
there and win back these food and drug customers that we
lost due to the termination of the sales agent. And getting
Walbaums is the key first step. We are working aggressively
on other opportunities. We also have cycled the biggest
part of the preprint declines so you’ll see some
improvement in preprint trends and Newsday as the second
half progresses. You are also seeing some encouraging signs
in other categories in Newsday, their national advertising
performance is improving, their local retail sales in many
areas are good. It has been an ongoing process that Tim
Knight describes as of rebuilding key customer relationships.
They are out in more dialog than ever with the advertisers
big and small and we think that picture will improve as
time progresses. They have also very clearly focused on
their core Long Island market -- Nassau, Suffolk and Queens
-- where they had the highest penetration of almost any newspaper
in the country. So, the fundamental franchise is strong,
it is the revenue-rebuilding process and particularly with
the union negotiations behind them, they can focus on that.
Q. I was also looking for the growth in online recruitment
revenues in the quarter.
A. Sure, it was 19%.
Paul Ginocchio, Deutsche Bank
Q.
What was cash at the end of the quarter? Second, the entertainment/radio
EBITDA line was down pretty significantly. I think you just
saying it was because of the fewer Cubs games, but you added
a couple of 2,200 seats or 6% extra capacity at Wrigley.
Let’s talk about
how that affected numbers and there is some still a fallout
from the I guess the closure of the Tribune Entertainment
group? Then finally, if Media News Group got a hold Torrance
Daily Breeze, would that change, the competitive landscape
at all in LA?
A. Cash at the end of the second quarter was $114 million.
A. In terms of the entertainment and radio line, we have
added seats and despite an unacceptable on-field performance,
the attendance is probably 99% of capacity. So, what you
are seeing in the second quarter is just a shift in the number
of home games which is part of what is causing, that decline.
Also WGN Radio revenues are slightly lower. So we did not
have a strong quarter at the radio station. Those are pretty
much the elements.
On the Daily Breeze, it is a modest
factor in the overall Los Angeles market and whoever ends
up owning it, we don’t
see a significant change in competitive balance.
Peter Appert, Goldman Sachs
Q.
How should we be thinking about the cost dynamics that newspaper
business in ‘07 in the
context of your $200 million target and specifically, I
am wondering if you think newsprints would potentially
be flat next year. If that were the case added on to your
$200 million target, could we see operating cost down on
a year-to-year basis next year on publishing?
A. We think it is very likely that newsprintspricing
will moderate, whether it is flat or up a little or down
a little next year, it’s just way too soon to know.
But we do think that the fundamental dynamic of those price
increases moderating is likely to occur. We are still working
through our financials for next year and it is also premature
to say whether total costs could be down. Our disciplines
will be very strong and the publishing group will contribute
by far the biggest portion of that $200 million over two
years cost reduction target.
Q. I don’t actually fully understand
what you have done on the depreciation side, if there was
no goodwill associated with the stations you are selling,
how is that that you have the write-down associated with
this sale?
A. It was unusual, but what basically
is happening is that we lump all of our TV stations together
when we look at impairment for goodwill.And because we
are putting all of our TV stations together for that calculation,
the SEC is requiring companies to, in essence, take a piece
of the group’s goodwill
and assign that to each of the TV stations in this particular
case. So, we had to do an estimate at the fair market value
of each of our TV stations and then take the proportion for
Albany and Atlanta of the grand total for all of our TV stations
and multiply that by goodwill and then that is how we came
up with this additional $80 million of goodwill that has
to be written-off. So, in essence, we added it to the original
purchase price of the TV stations.
Q. Okay. So this is not a write-down, of the other TV assets.
A. No it is not. No.
Q. But on a go-forward basis there is some modest earnings
benefit associated with lower goodwill amortization now?
A. Well, we are not amortizing goodwill. But again the multiple
here was a very good one. So, it will be slightly accretive
going forward.
Debra Schwartz, Credit Suisse
Q.
In TV, can you give us a little more color on why you expect
that TV to be down low-singles in Q3? I know typically you
don’t really get much in the way of political.
But in the past political has had the effect of the tightening
the market, I am just wondering why you don’t expect
to see that this year?
A. We would expect political to kick in later in the year,
more in fourth quarter, and we feel there should be some
reasonably significant political then, particularly in New
York and LA. I think what you are seeing in our comments
is just sort of a relatively weak overall ad environment,
whether it is a network upfront and that sort of trickles
down and has an impact on the spot marketplace where we generate
our revenue. So, also you are looking at a situation with
The WB being in a lame duck situation. That is not helpful,
and that is going to turnaround quickly in September with
The CW being very much a positive for us particularly in
our bigger markets.
In terms of the categories, it is a little bit the same
as publishing, you have got automotive down, because of the
weakness in sales. Retail is also down because a little bit
of the consolidation that is going on there, while movies
and telecom are up. And one thing we should see on both sides
of the house as the competition gets stronger in the telecom
business as we got cable versus satellite versus the telcos,
that is going to roll out on a market-by-market basis which
should be a benefit to local advertising economies, both
print and broadcast.
Q. You mentioned generally where the three big markets were
in publishing revenue. I was just wondering can you run through
specifically the growth rates for LA, Chicago, and Newsday?
A. In terms of ad revenue for the quarter, LA is up 1%,
Chicago down 4%, Newsday down 10%.
Frederick Searby, JPMorgan
Q. With respect to the ADVO/LA Times deal, ADVO has quantified
$10 million in savings. Do you have any thoughts whether
how many material that will be to the preprints business
in LA? I think that commences in August. Secondly, are you
amenable or open to striking similar deals in other markets?
And just finally, general thoughts whether there are any
competitive issues that concern you or other issues with
the merger of Valassis and ADVO?
A. So, starting with our distribution
partnership between the LA Times and ADVO, we’ve said that that’s
a very good deal for us going forward, both as we manage
the weekend program and have the opportunity to sell into
their established weekly program. And then our financial
benefit will be in excess of $10 million over time. In terms
of whether we would create partnerships elsewhere, we already
have one in Connecticut through the Hartford Courant. We
said we want to look at how the LA partnership unfolds. We
wouldn’t rule it out, but in many of our markets, we
are in very strong positions and it would only do that if
it was especially advantageous to us.
In terms of the Valassis acquisition
of ADVO, we have an excellent relationship with Valassis.
We’ve talked
to Al Schultz and Scott Harding since the announcement. Our
markets account for about 12% of Valassis’ total FSI
distribution. We don’t anticipate any significant near-term
changes, as they work to first close the deal and then formulate
their integration plans. Valassis has said both directly
to us and publicly that they continue to believe that home-delivered
newspaper circulation is really the gold standard with preprint
advertisers, their best distribution channel. They also believe,
as we do, that the combination of ad newspaper distribution
and shared mail is highly effective. So, we are aligned in
our beliefs in that regard. Them acquiring ADVO adds to a
degree in competitive dimension, but fundamentally we see
upside in the same focus and are confident we have a great
partnership going forward.
This is one of the areas that we are
investing in for greater targeting capabilities. We’ve
made significant investments and we are looking at continuing
to do so as we differentiate ourselves going forward through
this blend of newspaper and shared mail distribution on
sub-zip code basis.
Q. And in Long Island, just sort of segueing, but tit just
piqued my interest, I mean, as you kind of take back some
of the clients you lost from your feared competitor there,
do you think there is sort of a cooperation/competition model
or something that you could do more on these lines and that
front?
A. We would anticipate continuing to fight that out and
compete.
Christa Quarles, Thomas Weisel Partners
Q.
On your online help wanted. I was wondering if you could
give us the mix between online only -- if you still allow
that I am not sure if you do -- combo sales and just pure
online. And then also I was curious as to why CareerBuilder
would be up 42% but that your online help wanted was only
up 19%, if you could discuss if that’s
just a market-by-market difference or if there is something
else I should be thinking about?
A. So, essentially the revenue we book
that’s up 19%,
continues to be primarily print online bundles. There is
some online only in that but a relatively modest fraction,
driven largely by the newspaper sales forces. CareerBuilder
would be up more because their booking online only sales
and they have a very effective direct sales force that operates
nationwide including in our markets. So, in effect our share
of online revenue was higher than that plus 19% but the rest
is reflected in that CareerBuilder revenue growth where we
only show you the equity line but describe the growth in
terms of the network and affiliates and both.
Q. Could you describe what your CareerBuilder online, for
your markets would be up?
A. I don’t have that exactly but it would be up more
than 19%. What’s sold directly through CareerBuilder.
Alexia Quadrani, Bear Stearns
Q. Given your
comments earlier about the investing in the future of the
newspaper business, should we assume that once the 20 million
in buybacks that have occurred, that going forward your primary
use of cash really will be investments, possibly de-leveraging,
and buyback will take a backseat?
A. I think once we get to the end of
the year, and again our intention would be to repurchase
the 20 million shares by the end of year, then we will
assess where we are. But we’ve said we’ll continue to make investments
as we just talked about in whether it’s preprint targeting
to what advertisers are looking for, we will try to invest
in those areas and also continue to de-lever.
Q. And then when you look at your side of environment out
in Long Island in terms of preprint marketplace, in term
of trying to regain that share, is it really an effort in
terms of bulking out sales force or is it really very much
reliant on maybe discounting and try to get win the clients
back?
A. Actually, that’s going to be both. We’ve
strengthened the sales staff out there and it will be about
having a strong competitor. And it’s the job of Newsday
ad sales force to do whatever it takes to get that business
back.
We will also invested in a mail program late week on Long
Island that again strengthens our distribution to go with
our strong sales and pricing effort.
But we really think that the Walbaums
coming back is a result of the improvement in the infrastructure,
confidence in Newsday’s ability to deliver and just
again a much better sales effort. And that does involve
certainly competitive pricing.
John Janedis, Wachovia
Q:
Can you remind us, have you settled yet with all of the advertisers
at Newsday? And then separately as the company you have
talked for a couple of years now about trying to increase
your political from expanding news coverage. Where are you
on that and how do your ‘06 political revenue
looks relative to ‘04?
A. On the Newsday front, we have settled
with the vast majority of advertisers. There is one major
account that’s still
out there that we would expect to settle soon. But we are
still very confident of the amount of the reserve that will
be adequate to handle all those remaining. We are well over
90% at this point, or in that 90% range let’s say.
Once we have this large advertiser completely settled and
papered that will put us well over 90%.
Q: Is that an ‘06 event, do you
think?
A. Yes. We would think so.
As far as political advertising, yes
we have looked to increase our share there, we’ve got additional time periods
devoted to news, whether that’s in the morning, which
has become a much more popular day part, but political advertising
we think will be up about 50% for us over 2004.
Brian Shipman, UBS
Q. With respect to circulation, have you gotten more aggressive
in your discounting recently especially in the second quarter
or we have been managing down the other circ more aggressively?
I wanted to ask that given the increased declines in circ
revenue in the second quarter relative to the first quarter.
Have you had any recent discussion with the Chandlers and
any effort to resolve the dispute with them, if so, can you
provide any color on those discussions?
A. There is not a material difference
in discounting when you look at circulation revenues as
a relatively modest part of our total revenue, a point
or two difference just isn’t
that material.
Q. Okay, we just saw that circ revenue
deteriorate a bit sequentially, so I just wanted to ask…?
A. That’s true, they did slightly. Our discounting
strategy again is very selective focused on retention of
customers, which in terms of the cost part and our cost of
acquiring new customers you see some benefit there as well.
So, you got to really think of it not just circulation revenue
but then, what’s the cost of acquiring and retaining
those subscribers. On a net basis the trend is good.
As far as your second question, now that the tender offer
is completed, we will look forward to moving constructively
with the Chandlers. They are an important shareholder, we
work for the shareholders and we will look to do something
there that make sense for both sides and all shareholders.
Q. So, nothing, yet. But, planning on opening some sort
of discussions is what you are saying?
A. Well, I am just saying we will look to move forward constructively,
but really no comment on any other negotiations.
Michael Kupinski, AG Edwards
Q. On the improvement in revenues in LA Times, was that
in preprints or ROP?
A. It was both. They’ve done a
great job in terms of local retail sales, both ROP and
preprint.
Q. You mentioned that there are additional asset sales and
I was just wondering that there seems to be other non-strategic
assets that company could sell and I was just wondering your
thoughts about future asset sales beyond the $500 million
that you targeted?
A. We will look for situations if we
don’t have or
feel we have a competitive advantage, those assets would
be ones that we will look at. We will also look at the tax
situation and where we can benefit shareholders the most.
But, we have been having conversations as you might imagine,
once we made the announcement, we’ve gotten a lot of
phone calls, some of those look promising and we will just
keep everybody posted on that as soon as we make deals.
Q. So, there could be more asset sales beyond the $500 million
that you have targeted, is that what I should read into that
or no?
A. Could be. Again, depends on if the pricing was right.
There were certain assets that would put us beyond $500 million,
but right now that is our target and we will stay with that
number.
Q. And any thoughts on the FCC’s
move to lift media ownerships rules? Your thoughts on timing.
Are you facing any need for waivers, additional waivers
at this point?
A. We will have waivers till the completion
of the rule making. Our license renewal filings are due
for KTLA in August of ‘06, in Hartford in December,
and in New York in February 2007. First of all, the detailed
text has not been released. There will be 120-day comment
period following the release of the detailed text followed
by another 60-day reply comment period. We figure, right
now, the best case, that the rules would be issued in second
quarter of 2007. But, again, we do not have to worry in
terms of divestitures because we will be covered by a waiver
until the completion of the rulemaking.
One more thing to remember there is
that the court did agree with the FCC, they did remand
the FCC’s original rule.
But, the court did say that the record favored relaxation
of the newspaper/broadcast ownership rules. So, again, we
are confident the FCC will rule in our favor, but as we all
know this has taken forever and we are looking for a successful
conclusion to the rulemaking.
Q. One last question, in light of the
move to decrease certain items in the newspaper like the
stock tables and such and it’s an industry-wide issue,
can you talk about your papers newshole and where does
it stand? Does it look like this could be an area where
you might be able to reduce and possibly migrate some more
of this information over to the Internet, maybe into your
Internet sites. What are your thoughts on that?
A. Well, we have gone at this very thoughtfully thinking
of what content in our newspapers really has distinctive
and differentiated value to readers. And we are ahead of
many people in terms of reducing things like stock tables
that are essentially commodity. We see some selective opportunities
to continue down that path and expect that newsprint consumption
overall will continue to decline modestly going forward.
One of the investments we have made is much more additional
consumer and reader research. So, we are listening very carefully
to the customers and trying to give them what they value
the most.
Jim Goss, Barrington Research
Q.
At the Mid-Year Media Review sessions recently, if I am not
mistaken, Dean Singleton made a comment related to the greater
profitability of the online portion of the business and that
while the percentage of the revenue mix was modest right
now, he thought within say half a dozen years that could
be up to perhaps 20% of revenues and perhaps 40 to 50% of
cash flow from the online sources. I am wondering, if you
think that’s a realistic target
and if not, what you think in terms of your own publishing
operations? And you might also relate that to the potential
increasing share of online revenues that relate to non-classified
categories?
A. We still think that the print business will be a good
business. It is lots of advertising migrating to online.
Our view is that we, through launching additional verticals
and making sure we are positioned to get a good market share
online, we will capitalize on that trend. In terms of relative
profitability, online does have very good margins.
Again, you can clearly identify revenue
by media channel and we do our cost structure essentially
allocating incremental costs online. But you have to keep
in mind that through a large extent, our online businesses
are leveraging the prints infrastructure. Now there is
a content, sales, brand, you name it. So, it’s great that Dean can talk about this,
but we don’t see as easier way as he might in terms
of looking at what fundamentally is the profit drivers. Our
strategy is largely one based on the integration of print
online, but we are also building online only businesses that
we expect to have good margin over time as well. A key part
of that as you touched on, is building non-classified revenue
stream. That revenue so far this year is up like 40%, still
too small a percentage of the total but we see a lot of the
upside in the non-classified area.
Q. Gannett commented that there might
be some potential newsprint from China that could factor
into the supply-demand equation. I’m wondering if
you see that as one of the issues from your prior comment
that perhaps newsprint pricing cycle could be coming to
maybe a peak for this cycle.
A. It is a real possibility, sure.
Q. Okay, you are not looking into it specifically?
A. We have to get back, I haven’t
talked to our newsprint guy in the last couple of weeks.
Q. Okay. And then on the television
side, you are getting potentially better pricing for "Two
and a Half Men" and
the "Family Guy." But the audience appeal, I
presume would be at least somewhat less than some of your
previous high profile shows. And I’m wondering what
you see is the expected profitability from these shows relative
to the others and how it factors into the mix as you shift
to CW driven environment for your TV group.
A. We’ve had two issues really, some
of the really terrific sitcoms that we had like "Friends"
and "Everybody Loves Raymond" started to weaken a
little bit and people meter impact exacerbated that situation.
So, what we’re
really enthused about is both of these shows have young male
demos, men 18 to 34, adults 18 to 34. "Two and Half
Men" is the number one sitcom on the air with both
adults 25 to 54 and adults 18 to 49. So, we can bring some
young men back to the station. Adults 18 to 34, 18 to 49
are the demos that advertisers are looking for on a spot
basis. So, this is going to freshen our lineup in both early
and late fringe and that’s really what we needed. And
our major competitor elected to buy at very high prices,
the second cycle of "Everybody Loves Raymond" and
the third cycle of "Seinfeld." So, while those
are terrific shows, they are going to be a little bit long
in the tooth. So, we think we can come in and compete very
effectively with these two shows.
Q. With the potential to measure viewing audiences or the
viewing audiences of the commercials rather than just the
programs by Nielsen, how do see that changing the mix, is
it all risk or is it potential plus?
A. It comes down to this. We think television
advertising still works, sight, sound and emotion, and
we will have that kick in mostly on the network level first
and it will certainly be something that advertisers look
at. But we don’t
see any near-term impact on that. It will affect the perceived
supply of impressions, but we’ve been seeing these
kinds of things for a number of years, the reduction in the
impressions. And what we are seeing right now I think is
weakness in some key categories. So, the demand side of the
equation has been a little bit weaker. Just like with DVR
penetration increasing slightly, this has been a subject
of negotiation in the upfront marketplace. But we don’t
see any immediate impact on this to our business.
:: :: ::
This document contains certain comments
or forward-looking statements that are based largely on the
company's current expectations and are subject to certain
risks, trends and uncertainties. Such comments and statements
should be understood in the context of Tribune's publicly
available reports filed with the SEC, including the most current
annual report, 10-K and 10-Q, which contain a discussion of
various factors that may affect the company's business. These
factors could cause actual future performance to differ materially
from current expectations. Tribune Company is not responsible
for updating the information contained in this press release
beyond the published date, or for changes made to this document
by wire services or Internet service providers. |