 Third
Quarter 2002 Earnings
Conference Call
October 17, 2002 Ruthellyn
Musil, Vice President/Corporate Relations:
Good morning, and welcome to our conference
call to discuss 2002’s Third Quarter results. In our
press release this morning, we reported diluted earnings-per-share,
before special items, of $.46, up 92 percent from last year’s
third quarter adjusted results, and 8 cents ahead of First
Call consensus. September was a strong month, especially compared
to a year ago, which was impacted by 9-11.
As described in our press release "adjusted
results" reflect accounting changes for goodwill that
were implemented earlier this year. For your convenience,
our press release has two columns for 2001: one shows adjusted
results and the other shows actual results. A schedule for
the full year 2001, by quarter, is on our website.
On the call this morning is Dennis FitzSimons, president and
COO, and Don Grenesko, our chief financial officer. They will
each have brief remarks and then we’ll take your questions.
We expect the call to last about 45 minutes.
Before Dennis begins, please bear with me for
the standard reminder that our discussion may include forward-looking
statements that are covered in greater detail in our SEC filings.
Now, here’s Dennis.
Dennis FitzSimons, President and
Chief Operating Officer
Thanks, Ruthellyn and good morning everyone.
Third quarter earnings have come in strong
and overall, we’ve made good
progress through nine months. Our results have improved sequentially
every quarter this year, despite the tough economy. And there
are a couple of reasons for that:
First, our newspapers and television stations
are concentrated in major markets. As the economy comes back,
advertisers have to be there.
And second, we moved quickly to reduce costs
across the company when we saw the first hints of the advertising
recession.
Now, you’ve heard us say throughout the
last year and a half, as the economy begins to improve and
advertising demand picks up, Tribune will be well positioned
to take advantage of it. That’s what you see with this
quarter’s results and it’s especially true because
of our major market concentration.
Our strategies are paying off, and I’d
like to touch on a few examples this morning.
In the third quarter, television ad revenues in New York,
LA and Chicago outperformed the group. This revenue growth
was a big factor in driving an improvement in TV group operating
cash flow margins from 36 percent in last year’s third
quarter to 43 percent this quarter.
In publishing, cost controls put in place over
the past year and favorable newsprint pricing are accelerating
EBITDA growth as revenues improve. Third quarter operating
cash flow margins in publishing were also up 7 percentage
points again with higher percentage improvement in the top
three markets.
Now, let’s take a quick look at each
business segment.
Our TV stations are performing very well. And
we’re doing it without a disproportionate benefit from
political ad revenue, which contributes less than 2% to our
revenue totals. Yes, political has tightened overall inventory
in our markets. But we think the real key to our strong showing
is programming—great sitcom line-ups in early and late
fringe, The WB (which is having a phenomenal Fall), and strong
local news. We’re delivering key demos for our advertisers,
and our sales people are generating premium cost per thousands.
In third quarter, all major categories were
up, many by double-digit percentages. With rating increases
and market demand, our stations were able to raise rates in
virtually all dayparts.
Focusing on The WB for a moment, we have highlights on just
about every night:
- Monday – 7th Heaven had its strongest premiere
ratings ever. And The WB’s new family drama, Everwood
launched to both critical and rating success.
- Tuesday – Gilmore Girls had its best ever ratings
in adults 18-34, up significantly from last year’s
season premiere and 40 percent higher than Buffy, the Vampire
Slayer’s season premiere on UPN. WB’s second
Tuesday hour, Smallville, ranked #1 or #2 in its time period
in nearly every key demo while hitting a record high in
total viewers.
- On Wednesday October 9th, Birds of Prey premiered and
was #1 among all networks for the night in Men 18-34 and
#2 in Women 18-34.
- On Sunday, WB ratings are up 25% versus last year.
On average. the fall season overall is up 30
percent year-to-date and our stations in New York, Chicago
and Los Angeles have almost doubled the national average.
All of this bodes well for the fourth quarter and next year.
On the local level, our programming directors
have really done a great job. Our line-ups are anchored by
Friends, the #1 sitcom in syndication; Everyone
Loves Raymond is #2. Will and Grace, the off-NBC
sitcom, debuted in syndication on our stations September 23rd
and after 3 weeks, the show’s ratings look good. It
takes a while for a new show to get started and we’re
seeing ratings consistent with what Raymond delivered in its
debut on our stations last year.
Switching to newspapers, we’ve focused on our preprint
strategy and using our scale to our advantage. Preprints were
up 15% in the quarter, led by Chicago and Los Angeles. As
you may recall, we invested in new preprint insertion facilities
in both markets. They have recently come on-stream and results
are following.
When we doubled the size of our newspaper group
two years ago, it positioned us to deliver new advertising
solutions for our clients through Tribune Media Net. That
strategy is working. TMN is far ahead of where they were last
year at this time. They’ve already booked more than
$45 million in incremental revenue, and we’re looking
to end the year in the $55-$60 million range -- well above
goal and last year’s $34 million. Just this week we
concluded a major, multi-million dollar partnership with Walgreen’s,
the nation’s number one pharmacy chain. Starting November
16, we will produce a weekly magazine-style TV show based
on health and medical reports from Tribune stations. It will
be shown here in Chicago on WGN and nationwide on WGN Superstation.
This project is of special significance because it is the
first TMN deal that is national in scope.
Scale also gives us advantages within our markets.
Our recent purchase in August of Chicago Magazine
is a great example. It reaches an upscale, younger demographic,
making it a terrific advertising vehicle for high-end clients.
At $35 million, the purchase multiple of less than 10-times
2001 cash flow made it a worthwhile transaction on a stand-alone
basis. And while it’s operated separately from our other
media businesses in Chicago our strategy to cross-promote,
cross-sell and share content will work here, too.
Scale also is important to our classified strategy,
and it will help us to win both in print and online. As you
know, our vehicle in the online recruitment arena is CareerBuilder,
and the addition of Gannett as a partner in CareerBuilder
is a huge win. It means additional exposure and promotion
for CareerBuilder in more than 90 new markets and national
exposure through USA Today.com.
CareerBuilder is the backbone of our online
recruitment strategy, and considering this very difficult
economy, CareerBuilder’s results have been strong. We
estimate that in the first half, CB increased its market share
by two points at the expense of Monster and HotJobs. In third
quarter, revenues were about $27 million and for the full
year, they should be about $110 million.
Looking to the fourth quarter, business trends
are solid. In TV, we expect year over year revenues again
to be up strongly. In publishing, October is off to a good
start.
So on that note, let’s go to Don...
Don Grenesko, Vice President/Finance
and Administration
Thanks, Dennis.
Tribune had an excellent third quarter, marked
by both revenue growth and lower cash expenses. EBITDA was
up 45% to $378 million, as consolidated revenue grew 5% and
cash expenses were down 5% compared to a year ago.
EBITDA margins improved significantly in both
publishing and broadcasting this quarter, and interactive
was again cash flow positive.
In publishing, revenues were up 2%:
- Retail rose by 7%, driven by the continued strength of
preprints. Categories performing well included department
stores, electronics, home furnishing and food stores.
- National was up 5% in the quarter. The LA Times was particularly
strong due to movies and entertainment, auto manufacturers
and the hi-tech categories, while Newsday also benefited
from the strength in hi-tech, particularly wireless.
- Classified was down 3% in the third quarter, but showed
quarterly sequential improvement. Classified continues to
benefit from strength in the automotive and real estate
categories. Help wanted was off 20% in the third quarter,
an improvement over the 23% decline in the second quarter.
Publishing cash expenses declined by 7%:
- Newsprint costs were down 25%, as the newsprint price
increase announced in August hasn’t affected us as
yet.
- In addition, consumption declined 4%.
- Compensation was 3% lower than last year and other cash
costs were down 2%.
Turning to television we are seeing better
trends due in large part to tighter inventory. Excluding acquisitions,
third quarter advertising revenues increased 18% in the quarter.
Without acquisitions, TV cash operating expenses
decreased 1 percent, and staffing remains 4% below last year’s
levels. Again, excluding acquisitions, TV programming costs
were up 2% as the absence of Dodger’s baseball only
partially offset the increases related to the fall 2001 launch
of Everybody Loves Raymond.
Importantly, EBITDA rose by 37% and the television group increased
its operating cash flow margin to 43% this quarter.
Last, but not least, we’re happy to
again report that Tribune Interactive was cash flow positive
in the third quarter, due to a 32% increase in revenues as
well as lower cash expenses.
Now, turning to the equity line, in September,
we converted CareerBuilder’s legal structure from a
standard corporation to an LLC. This created a taxable gain
for CareerBuilder, and our share of their tax liability was
$18 million, which was reflected in our third quarter equity
losses.
The conversion also triggered a capital loss
for tax purposes for Tribune, which we will use during the
next twelve months. The cash benefit to Tribune for this loss
is $36 million. This tax loss doesn’t have an accounting
impact because we'd previously tax effected our book equity
losses and write downs related to CareerBuilder. The LLC structure
is also more tax efficient going forward.
Tribune’s net interest expense decreased
by 18 percent as we benefited from lower commercial paper
rates. Currently we are only paying a little under 2% on $500
million of commercial paper. In addition, our third quarter
debt level excluding the PHONES has come down to $2.9 billion,
and we expect to reduce that further to the $2.8 billion level
by year-end.
Now let’s turn to our outlook for the
rest of the year:
- We expect publishing revenue to continue to grow modestly,
and we’ve projected newsprint prices to increase somewhat.
- In television, we anticipate strong advertising revenues
in the 15-20% range, partially offset by moderately higher
programming costs due to the impact of Everybody Loves
Raymond and Will and Grace.
- Throughout the company, compensation and other cash costs
will continue to be tightly controlled; however, we will
cycle through staff reductions completed about this time
last year, so FTEs will be about the same in the fourth
quarter compared to last year’s.
- As has been the case throughout the year, we’ll
continue to see the impact of higher benefits costs and
a lower pension credit.
- Additionally, we’ll be accruing bonuses this quarter
compared to the reversal of bonuses in the fourth quarter
of last year. If you recall, we didn’t pay bonuses
in 2001, and senior management took a 5% salary cut.
- Although cash expenses have declined by 5% year-to-date,
because of the factors I just mentioned, we expect cash
expenses to be flat to down slightly in the fourth quarter.
In closing, let me reiterate the earnings guidance
you may have seen in our press release:
- We are comfortable with the current range of analyst estimates
for both the fourth quarter and the full year, which are
46 to 56 cents and $1.65 to $1.80, respectively.
Now, we’d be happy to take your questions...
Q & A
Bill Drewry, Credit Suisse First Boston
Q. What is the correlation of TV station
revenue growth to the WB scatter growth?
A. Our network sales -- sales The WB makes -- are most impacted
by scatter and given that the ratings are strong they have
more inventory to sell. The scatter market in the 4th quarter
has been strong. Our stations are operating in the spot
market where the business is usually placed closer to the
start date. There’s usually a lag time as to when
the ratings become apparent to ad buyers and when we get
a benefit. Later in the fourth quarter, these newer shows’
premiere performances are going to be reflected in the rates.
Q. Mix of revenue at Tribune Media Net? Is
it more broadcast driven or an equal mix?
A. Publishing tends to get more of a benefit. The latest
deal with Walgreens has more of a benefit to broadcasting,
but there’s also a publishing component. Cross-media
represents about 50% of overall TMN revenues and publishing
gets about 75% of that.
Q. Will the success at The WB benefit your
equity line next year?
A. Yes
Lauren Fine, Merrill Lynch
Q. What percent of dollar revenue gain in
3rd quarter is attributable to political advertising?
A. 2% for the year, 2% for the quarter, will go up to about
3% in 4th quarter, mostly in October.
Q. What percentage of TV station revenue
comes from automotive advertising?
A. About 19-20%.
Q. Capex projections for the 4th quarter,
seem high. Elaborate.
A. We have some projects that are beginning in the fourth
quarter. Traditionally capex is higher in the 4th quarter.
In some instances, we’ve been cautious, in light of
the economy, and pushing projects back. because they were
conservative throughout the year.
Q. Debt for the full year thought it might
be lower.
A. We have some large tax payments that we typically make
in the 4th quarter and the normal dividends payments that
will affect outgoing cash flow.
Q. Newsprint price increase -- when will
it take affect?
A. Most will take hold in the fourth quarter of 2002. We
will have to wait to see if there will be some roll back
of those prices next year depending on the advertising.
Kevin Gruneich, Bear Stearns
Q. TV, your guidance on Q4 seems in line
with growth in Q3. Why won’t that be stronger given
the momentum in the 3rd quarter.
A. Looking at pacing numbers that are stronger than 15-20%.
September was strong benefiting from political and the easier
comps from Sept. 11th. Political will end by October. We
think 15-20% is the right level. September, by the way,
was the first month where we were above the year 2000 in
billing.
Q. Goals for Interactive for year-end 2002 and 2003?
A. We would look for continued revenue increases in the
32% range going forward and continued strength in 2003.
Q. Pension assumptions?
A. We lowered our assumption from 9.75% to 9% and we are
still reviewing this. Our discount rate was 7.25% and since
interest rates are lower, we will look at that to go to
7%. Our pensions are all overfunded and we haven’t
made a contribution in our pension plans in over 10 years.
Steve Barlow, Prudential Securities
Q. Preprint story in New York?
A. We mention LA and Chicago because the opportunity so
strong. We have given them better capabilities with the
investment in new facilities. The Sunday insertion machines
come on-stream in November and December. We can see additional
pickup there going into 2003. We’ve already taken
share from ADVO on the west coast. This is a share story
for us. We’re only have about one-third of the market
in LA; in Chicago, it’s about 65%. There’s a
big share opportunity in LA and greater capability in Chicago
now. In New York, there is not as much opportunity as there
is in LA.
Q. Help Wanted outlook.
A. We don’t see it going positive in the 4th quarter.
If we get back to trends closer to 1990-91 we would hope
to see positive results in the 1st quarter of 2003.
Q. Will CareerBuilder credit impact tax rate
next year?
A. That will not impact the tax rate in the income statement,
because we’ve already tax-affected the book equity
losses and writedowns we’ve already taken on CB.
Q. Final payments for preprint facilities
will be in the 4th quarter?
A. Yes.
Brian Shipman, UBS Warburg
Q. Comment on soon-to-be released ABC circulation
audit results in New York, LA and Chicago?
A. New York, Chicago and LA will show increases in daily
and Sunday. LA and Chicago’s increases will be in
home delivery and New York in single copy sales.
Q. Is it still your goal to get broadcasting
side of business up to 50% of cash flow? Would you be willing
to look at a big newspaper deal if it overlapped with your
TV footprint?
A. We would like to get our mix closer to 50/50. We’re
about 68% publishing and 32% broadcasting now. #1 on our
priority list is broadcasting acquisitions, but there is
not an opportunity that will get us there right now. So
we will look for Indianapolis-type opportunities. We want
to be disciplined.
Q. Run of press rates plans in 2003? Rate
increases?
A. We are in the midst of our operating planning season
right now. So we will be able to talk more about this in
December.
Peter Appert, Goldman Sachs
Q. Tax rate for 2003?
A. Should be around 39%
Q. IRS update.
A. We have 90 days to file our petition in tax court and
we expect to do this in early November. There is no time
frame; it will probably take a couple of years before we
get resolution.
Q. Drivers for the 4th quarter?
A. On the revenue side, if classified, help wanted picked
up, that would help us. Seeing good trends as we go into
October. For total ad revenue, October is running around
the same levels as September but the mix is different. Retail
is off a bit and classified and help wanted have improved
since September.
On the expense side, it would help us if we can hold off
on the newsprint price increase. We don’t expect that
we will have the 5% decrease in cash expenses for the rest
of the year, because of FTEs being flat, higher benefit
costs, bonus accruals.
Q. Equity line for next year?
A. No number yet, will have it in December.
Doug Arthur, Morgan Stanley
Q. The $18M charge for CareerBuilder, is
that in the $.46 cents?
A. Yes, it is in the $.46 cents.
Q. Pacings in October and November, particularly
post Nov. 5th?
A. We’re seeing low 20’s for October and more
in the 30’s for periods 11 and 12. What we’ve
seen is pacings come down as we get into the month. So we
stay with 15-20% for the overall quarter.
Q. Trends by major market for the newspapers?
A. For the 1st two weeks in October, NY is leading the pack
with excellent growth in the mid-teens, higher than September.
For Chicago and LA, they are off a little from September
but very close.
Q. Was that a similar pattern in the 3rd
quarter? Or did Chicago and LA lead the way?
A. We thought New York would come out a bit more slowly,
but New York has been our strongest performer. And in LA,
we have seen good growth, with the exception of help wanted,
which has been tough. Help wanted has been toughest in Chicago.
Bill Bird, Salomon Smith Barney
Q. Elaborate on 2% gain in online recruitment?
Do you count forced Internet package buys as share gains?
Comment on the CareerBuilder strategy evolving with the
addition of Gannett?
A. We think we will hold on these shares gains and maybe
increase them. Yes, upsells are in that share gain.
We are very excited about Gannett joining CareerBuilder.
90 new markets, major markets and USAToday.com. Gannett
is a great partner and we see it helping going forward.
Right now, Monster doesn’t have the promotional budget
it had in the past. When you add Gannett’s promotional
platform to Tribune’s and Knight Ridder’s, you’ll
see CareerBuilder has a tremendous advantage.
Barton Crockett, JP Morgan
Q. Guidance for the 4th quarter? Is consensus
a bit high?
A. We are in the range for the 4th quarter and the full
year. Perhaps to the higher range of the range for the full
year.
Q. Trends in TV -- is it to early to
get a sense for January?
A. Feel confident about the 1st six months of next year.
The advantage of the strong the 4th quarter will spill over
into the 1st quarter, and we think, in to the 2nd quarter.
The biggest thing that needs to happen anytime you have
a turnaround like this, is that some rate discipline has
to happen in the spot market.
Christa Sober, Thomas Weisel
Q. Comment on pricing for TV. Do you expect
the scatter trend to continue?
A. 4th quarter, pricing is very strong. There were no positives
in the 4th quarter of last year. There was little demand
and the stations were going for share. They’re still
going for share, but from a higher rate level. The network
scatter marketplace breaks earlier than the spot market.
, we will have a better feel in November and December as
our marketplace breaks later.
We have some good things going for us as
we go into a non-political year. Only 2% of revenue comes
from political advertising, so we won’t have the political
hangover. And our audience share is in good shape. So that,
combined with market demand, gives us a lot of confidence.
Q. CapEx for 2003?
A. Estimating that CapEx will be in the $225-$240 range.
Mandana Hormozi, Lazard Fréres
Q. How long to get your duopoly stations
to optimum margins?
A. We think we can add 6-7% points and maybe in 10% going
out further. In Indianapolis, by co-locating our stations,
we can eliminate $5M in operating expenses in the first
12 months. The biggest advantage is programming purchasing.
We use our market licenses to buy a program and air it on
both stations in different dayparts if we choose. It takes
one competitor out of the programming buying process.
Jim Goss, Barrington Research
Q. Category specifics for TV outlook.
A. Sustainability is there for next year. Audience share
position is strong combined with demand advantages us.
Q. Will you get a greater benefit from the
tightening of the political?
A. No doubt we benefit from tightening. Traditionally, we’ve
had revenue share gains in non-political years.
Q. Could the Walgreens TV product end up
as a print magazine insert?
A. There is a print component to the deal. This is the first
national deal that we have done. It is a Walgreens exclusive.
We are using existing TRB content. There will be no blurring
of editorial lines. The lines are very clear. This is an
example of an advertiser getting a benefit without a cost
to us.
Bill Drewry, Credit Suisse First Boston
Q. Are preprint revenues as profitable as
run-of-press?
A. The preprint margins are actually higher than retail
Q. Rationale for including $18M CareerBuilder
charge? It seems like a one-time charge.
A. It’s GAAP rules that set the accounting standards.
Mike Kupinski, A.G. Edwards
Q. Yahoo/CB Lawsuit -- what affect that might
be?
A. CareerBuilder filed a patent infringement suit against
HotJobs in federal court. The suit claims HotJobs infringed
on two CareerBuilder electronic job search patents. Yahoo
filed suit claiming the two patents are invalid. It is pending
litigation, so we can’t really comment on this.
Barton Crockett, JP Morgan
Q. Impact of Denver station divestiture on
revenues and cash flow.
A. In 3rd quarter, radio cash flow was flat as gains in
WGN radio offset the partial divestiture. We continue to
receive a time-brokerage fee from Entercom for one of the
three stations in Denver until we identify a suitable trade
candidate. It shouldn’t have a material impact on
either line.
:: :: ::
This document contains certain comments
or forward-looking statements that are based largely on the
company's current expectations and are subject to certain
risks, trends and uncertainties. Such comments and statements
should be understood in the context of Tribune's publicly
available reports filed with the SEC, including the most current
annual report, 10-K and 10-Q, which contain a discussion of
various factors that may affect the company's business. These
factors could cause actual future performance to differ materially
from current expectations. Tribune Company is not responsible
for updating the information contained in this press release
beyond the published date, or for changes made to this document
by wire services or Internet service providers. |