Third
Quarter 2003 Earnings
Conference Call
October 16, 2003
Ruthellyn Musil, Vice President/Corporate Relations
Thanks very much and good morning everyone.
Welcome to our conference call to review 2003 third quarter
results. As usual we'll keep our call to about 45 minutes.
We understand that many of you have other earnings calls
following ours. So, opening remarks will be brief and we'll
hope to get to all of your questions.
As you saw on our press release, Tribune's third quarter
earnings of 53 cents on a GAAP basis including a five-cent
gain associated with non-operating items. This is within
the range of analyst estimates on first call and the first
paragraph of our release contains the information needed
to make a meaningful comparison.
Our speakers this morning are Dennis FitzSimons, Tribune's
president and CEO and Donald Grenesko, senior vice president/chief
financial officer.
Before turning the call over to Dennis let me just remind
you that our discussion may include forward-looking statements
that are covered in greater detail in our SEC filings.
Thanks, and now here's Dennis.
Dennis FitzSimons, President and CEO
Thank you, Ruthellyn. Some of us sound a little hoarse this
morning because one of our smaller, but most visible business
units had a disappointing end to an exciting season. It was
a great turnaround year for us and we have a lot to build
on. I do think it says something about the interest in our
team, when the incredible ratings of this most recent league
championship series cause NBC to pull original episodes from
their primetime line-up and put on repeats last night. Well,
again a disappointing end, but Andy MacPhail and Jim Hendry
will have a busy off-season and they'll continue to improve
the team.
Going back to regular business we had solid revenue growth
of 3.4% in the third quarter. However, as we indicated to
you in our second quarter call, we face some significant
expense challenges. As we expected, consolidated expenses
were up in the mid-single digits due to compensation, newsprint
and accelerated amortization of broadcast rights. We also
had higher expenses at the Cubs, partially due to adding
payroll in July for several new players; however, that investment
certainly paid off for us. Since Don will be reviewing the
expense picture in some detail, I'll zero in on the revenue
picture.
Publishing revenues grew 2% and, as you know, we have significant
upside with help wanted advertising. We're seeing a number
of good signs in that category going forward. First, help
wanted for the publishing group improved to -7% in the third
quarter from
-15% in Q2 and we have all markets showing improvement. Second, there are signs
that help wanted should start to grow soon again. In September, temporary jobs
increased for the fifth straight month and this is traditionally the precursor
to help wanted growth. Finally, as help wanted improves, we're well positioned
with our integrated print and on-line strategy anchored by CareerBuilder. CB's
results were strong once again this quarter; the partnership with Gannett and
Knight Ridder generated network revenues of $43 million in the third quarter,
an increase of 14% over the second quarter of 2003.
As I think most of you know, CareerBuilder will replace
Monster as the exclusive job listings provided for both AOL
and MSN beginning next year. This will increase traffic from
7 million to well over 10 million visitors per month and
certainly will translate into increased revenue share. The
other significant news in publishing this quarter was the
launch of two more targeting products that will help us reach
new audiences. In early September, we expanded our Spanish
language daily Hoy to Chicago . Hoy has enjoyed terrific
success in New York where it is the largest Spanish language
daily.
The launch has gone smoothly here in Chicago
where Hoy replaced a weekly publication called Exito. We
added only 1 FTE to do that to make the transition from a
weekly to a daily and we're well ahead of plan on paid circulation
and advertising. On October 10 th , our second new publication
amNewYork, a free commuter tabloid targeted to the 18 to
34-year-old market, launched in Manhattan, a market with
4.5 million daily commuters. We see this as a very worthwhile
investment opportunity and plan to build our New York portfolio
without cannibalizing the existing assets. amNew York is
lead by a management team that orchestrated the successful
launch of free newspapers in the Boston area.
Turning to TV, our television revenues
were up 5.4% for the quarter with September showing improvement
over July and August. Unlike what you have been hearing
from the radio business, our local advertising is strong.
In fact, it's stronger than national. Second positive from
the television business is that we acquired the rights
to HBO's award-winning "Sex
in the City" and will run an edited, broadcast version, in
late-fringe. Because of this, we'll pay a very reasonable
price for what we think will be a very highly rated program.
The WB's new season had a strong launch, but like some other
networks we're faced with tough competition from baseball.
That's good news for our Fox stations and, until last night,
our Cubs. But the national interest certainly has taken a
toll on the WB and all other networks, both broadcast and
cable.
We're confident, when things will return to normal the WB
will continue its rating growth among the important young
demographics. Let's take a look at highlights in the top
three markets since they deliver over 50% of our revenue
and cash flow. Chicago 's performing especially well. Ad
revenues at the Chicago Tribune were up 5% in the quarter
and the paper's preprint performance is especially strong.
Chicago magazine's circulation is at the highest point it
has been since 1995 and that certainly has been helped by
some of the cross-promotion we've put in place. Both WGN-TV
and Radio have benefited from the Cubs pennant race in the
quarter. As a matter of fact, WGN Radio got its ratings book
and posted its best results in years. Certainly the Cubs
ratings on both TV and radio says something nicely for 2004
ad sales. In Los Angeles , both the LA Times and KTLA had
revenue growth in-line with our overall newspaper and TV
numbers this quarter. In addition, LA had its biggest quarter
ever for Tribune Media Net in cross-media sales, totaling
nearly $5 million for the quarter.
In New York , the market has been soft throughout the quarter
and that has impacted the performance of both WPIX and Newsday.
One bright spot, however, was classified advertising at Newsday,
up 9% offsetting weakness in retail and national.
Moving to the equity line, that made a positive contribution
this quarter due in large part to our investments in the
Television Food Network and the WB. The equity line will
also be positive in Q4 and for the full year.
The expense picture will improve to flat in the fourth quarter
as programming rights will be down slightly year-over-year
on the broadcast side and management bonus expense will be
lower compared to higher accruals last year. As you may recall,
for the first six months last year we accrued bonuses at
a low level, but as the year improved in the second half,
we moved those numbers up.
We're also looking at other ways to control expenses. Like
a lot of other companies we'll be very focused on this issue
as we go through our 2004 operating plan process, which is
ongoing. Right now we are cautiously optimistic about the
revenue picture in the fourth quarter. We're looking for
continued sequential improvement in newspapers and good television
performance against some very tough comps from last year.
We'll keep you posted and updated with our monthly revenue
releases.
Before turning this to Don, let remind you that our ability
to generate cash has never been stronger. Operating cash
flow for the full year will be about $1.6 billion and free
cash flow will top $800 million. This conversion rate of
about 50% is higher than many other media companies, due
to continued modest capital expenditures and a conservative
debt level. The things look good going forward. Great media
businesses in the nation's major markets that combine national
scale and strong localism. We're positioned well as the economy
continues to improve. Here is Don.
Don Grenesko, Senior Vice President/Finance and Administration
Thanks, Dennis and good morning everyone. Our third quarter-consolidated
revenues were up 3.4% over last year, lead by our broadcasting
group. Consolidated cash expenses rose by 5.5%, in line with
the guidance we gave you in July. However, our cash expenses
should be about flat in the fourth quarter. Several factors
contributed to the third quarter's higher expenses. Compensation
rose as a result of merit increases, higher medical costs
and a lower pension credit. Publishing's cash expenses increased
by 3.6% as newsprint costs were 9% higher. While the price
per ton for newsprint increased 8% in the third quarter,
none of the $50 per ton price increase amounts for August
was paid in the quarter.
TV cash expenses were up 10% due primarily
to the impact of the St. Louis and Portland TV station
acquisitions, increased programming costs and higher compensation
and benefits. Excluding these acquisitions, expenses would
have been up 6%. Programming expenses were higher in the
quarter, but are starting to decline since we've cycled
through the first year of "Will
and Grace." And thanks to our strong line-up, no new sitcoms
are being introduced at our stations this fall. We also had
higher operating expenses for the Chicago Cubs.
Turning to publishing, revenues grew 2% in the third quarter.
Retail rose by 2% driven in part by a 5% increase in preprint
revenue reflecting continued strength in Chicago and LA.
Categories performing well included furniture, food and hardware.
Department stores were soft despite Chicago 's continued
strength; however, department stores comprise only 7% of
our overall publishing admission revenues. National was up
6% in the quarter, with strength in high-tech, auto manufacturer's
and financial. As a reminder, national advertising is 25%
of our publishing revenue, significantly higher than the
industry average of 16%.
Classified was up slightly in the quarter. Real estate and
auto continued to perform well, up 10% and 3% respectively.
Help wanted was off 7%. Certainly not a good number, but
it still represents a significant improvement over the 15%
decline we saw in the second quarter. Interactive revenues
were up 24% due to strength in classified as well as banner
and sponsor advertising. As a reminder, interactive revenues
have been reclassified into the appropriate revenue categories
within publishing.
As Dennis mentioned, the equity line shows a $1 million
profit this quarter compared with a loss of $28 million in
the third quarter of 2002, which reflected our $18 million
share of CareerBuilders one time tax charge. This year's
third quarter also reflects the equity income from TV Food
Network and improved results at the WB network.
Debt will be about $2.2 billion at year-end compared with
$2.75 billion at the end of 2002. Our capital expenditures
totaled $42 million in the third quarter and should be in
the $175 million range for the full year. Finally while it's
difficult to predict the revenue picture for the balance
of the year, I would like to reiterate that fourth quarter
consolidated cash expenses should be about flat with last
year and fourth quarter EPS should be within the range of
analyst estimates. This assumes a reviving economy and that
non-operating items are not material. Now I would be happy
to take your questions.
Q&A
Peter Appert, Goldman Sachs
Q. Could you just give us some
flavor in terms of what drives your confidence on the improving
ad environment going into the fourth quarter? Maybe some
flavor for October numbers in both the newspaper and broadcast
side?
A. We think that sequentially help wanted will continue
to improve. We are again working against tough comps as
last year's fourth quarter was so strong, but we're starting
to see some improvement in television pacing. It's not
great. We're seeing a little bit of strength at the end
of the quarter. As it has been well reported, the scatter
marketplace in network hasn't been as strong as it was
last year. But some of our markets on the local front are
looking a little bit stronger. But again, we were plus
22 last year on the TV side and our newspaper revenues
were plus seven. So again, we are cautiously and optimistic.
Q. Can you give us any specifics
on the pacings?
A. We have not been doing that.
Q. We know you've got
the advantageous programming costs going into '04. When
do you have to re-up on the program schedule? Is "Sex
and the City" large
enough to significantly alter the programming expense
to rollout?
A. No. That will start in September of '05.
That is what we would describe as a reasonably priced product.
It is not something that is priced as a blockbuster sitcom,
but we do think it has significant ratings upside. We'll
have a modest increase in Q4 '04 in programming but the
first three quarters we'll have that declining program
expense benefit.
Q. And modest would be the
right adjective to describe '05 in terms of program cost
increases as well?
A. Yes.
Lauren Fine, Merrill Lynch
Q. What you're hearing from any retailers
and the expectation if they will re-up on the newspaper
side later in the quarter.
A. We're hearing some encouraging
news on retail sales for the fourth quarter and we are
hoping that translates into greater advertising in the
mid to latter fourth quarter.
Q. Could you break out classified for September
in terms of help wanted, auto and real estate?
A. In terms
of classified in September, we were up 1% in total classified
advertising for the newspaper group. The components were
help wanted, down 5%, real estate was up 6%, and auto was
also up about 6%.
Q. Going a little bit further on the retail
side, some other people have suggested they talked to the
retailers and the retailers are saying they might come
back. It sounds like you're not hearing that specifically.
A.
I think a lot of it is market by market. We have seen a
lot of strength in Chicago because of re-launch of Marshall
Fields State Street store and also Bloomingdale's home
store and they have been very aggressive in advertising.
Again, it does vary market-to-market, but we are hearing
some reasonable forecasts. Particularly in October and
part of November. So we're picking up market share and
would expect to post an increase in the fourth quarter.
Q.
Go back to your comment about being cautiously optimistic.
Given the difficult comparisons you have faced on the
newspaper side and the TV side, do you expect to show positive
rev not growth in the fourth quarter?
A. Yes.
Q. On both segments or just overall?
A. Both
segments. On the TV side, our numbers should be better
than our peers again because we don't have these enormous
numbers in political advertising that some of our peer
companies have to deal with.
Q. Is there is a way to quantify the financial
impact of the Cubs post season play for the fourth quarter?
A.
Around a penny.
William Drewry, CSFB
Q. If you could drill down on what compensation
growth will look like over the next quarter or two.
A. In
terms of the compensation, the run-rate on merit increases
has been 3%. Management bonuses should be down in the fourth
quarter this year versus last year for the very reasons
that Dennis had mentioned earlier. There was catch-up in
the fourth quarter of last year. The pension credit that
will also be down in the fourth quarter compared to last
year. For the year as a whole it was around $40 million
or so in terms of the decline. So it will be roughly $9
to 10 million in terms of the pension credit decline in
the fourth quarter versus last year.
Q. Just on help wanted, do you think that
you could print a positive number by the end of the year
given the trajectory you're seeing and the look you have
maybe on October so far, is it possible that you could
actually get back to a positive comp?
A. On the help wanted
front that we're projecting job creation to really turn
in the first quarter of '04, so I'm not sure that we could
put a positive numbers in the fourth quarter. But in '04
we have good expectations.
Q. The street estimates for the fourth quarter
that range is pretty wide, 61- 71 cents. Any feel on where
in the range that you feel comfortable at this point?
A.
No. That is the only guidance we're going to give at this
point.
Steven Barlow, Prudential
Q. Talk a little bit about your forecast
for newsprint prices with the last increase not going through
quite yet.
A.. As we had mentioned, we're not paying any
of the $50 per ton price increase so far this year. We
do expect that a modest portion of that will take hold
in the fourth quarter.
Q. On modest increase in newsprint is that
from a $50 level or a $35 level and do you think you'll
pay any in October?
A. We think that there will be a small
piece of that that we'll pay in October and it's probably
more towards the $35 as a whole.
Q. You mentioned the WB doing better in
the third quarter. I'm just curious whether or whether
or not that was a positive contributor in the quarter or
just less bad.
A. WB is positive for the year. That's really
the guidance we have been giving out. Better than last
year and overall for the year the WB will be a positive
contributor to the equity line.
Q. Could you give a forecast on the fourth
quarter equity line?
A.. In terms of the equity line, we
do expect that the fourth quarter will be positive and
that for the year as a whole our equity line will be on
the positive side.
Douglas Arthur, Morgan Stanley
Q. On the L.A. scene, seems like there is
a fair amount of chaos now in the L.A. market with a major
supermarket strike and now a transit strike. Any impact
you are seeing or may see because of those two events on
advertising?
A. The supermarket strike, that is a real small
part of our business. Actually it is a category that we
view with upside. It is one of the reasons we invested
in these improved preprint facilities out there because
we weren't getting much of their business. We don't see
that as having much of an impact on us at all. And as far
as the transit strike, that is a new one and seeing that
is not much of a mass transit market, I really don't have
a good answer for you on that one. But we'll check get
back to you on that.
Q. In terms of the ratings at WB, you've
talked about the impact of the baseball playoffs on WB
but the ratings do seem to be off to a slow start in
the new fall season. I'm wondering if you could just talk
a little bit about some of your new shows such as "One
Tree Hill," etc.
How do you feel about the rest of the season there in
terms of some of the other programming.
A. As far as the
WB ratings, with so much turmoil in the market I think
it is kind of difficult to read. We're pleased with our
returning shows. We have seen some increases in the premieres,
but with everybody's schedule changing, I think we're going
to need to wait until later in October to find out exactly
what is going to happen. The fact that NBC was pulling
original episodes was surprising but I think that gives
you an indication of what impact both the Yankee/Red Sox
series and Cubs/Marlins series have had on all network
programming, not just broadcast but cable network programming
also.
Q. Do you view the NBC/Vivendi combination
changing your relationship with the Warner Brothers studio
at all over time?
A. No, I don't think so. I think we have
become more valuable in terms of shelf space. NBC studios
use us as shelf space for their sitcoms and we're hoping
they continue to have success putting out some sitcoms.
We've been a buyer from Universal TV and we see that relationship
continuing. They're not going to be looking to lose market
share and I think that they'll be viewing us as a very
valuable customer.
Christa Sober, Thomas Weisel Partners
Q. Could you give us a sense as to what
the contribution from some of these alternative dailies
and weeklies that you have including Hoy the RedEye? If
you could give us a sense as to what they were up year-over-year?
A.
Again, these are designed to try to reach younger readers.
We reach in our Big Three newspaper markets about 50% of
18 to 34 readers every week. We want to increase the frequency
that with which we reach them. So that is our goal here.
A red eye, we have circulation about 80 they 80,000, about
15% of that is paid.We're trying to migrate to more of
a fully paid circulation model there. RedEye is and will
be in '04 in a very modest loss position. But we have 250
new clients there that have not advertised in the Chicago
Tribune before and looking to reach that younger demo.
Hoy, on the other hand, is a real success story. That is
80,000 paid. The largest circulation in New York and we
are ahead of schedule here in Chicago with the conversion
of our Exito weekly to our Hoy daily. So, the launch has
gone smoothly. Revenue projections in terms of advertising
are ahead of where we thought we would be and we'll look
to roll that out in other markets.
Q. L.A.?
A. Well, I think that is the most
logical question. You probably saw the announcement. La
Opinion and the Lazano family would like to be independent
and they have the option to do that. We certainly wish
them well if that transaction comes to be. We certainly
think that Los Angeles is a big enough Hispanic market
that possibly two newspapers aimed at that community could
both flourish. But, we have no specific plans at this point.
Q. I was wondering if you could give us
the help wanted numbers, excluding Internet for the quarter
and in the month of September.
A. We stated in our press
release our online revenues were $25 million up 24% but
we're not going to break it out any further.
Q. Cash expenses will be flat in the fourth
quarter. I'm assuming newsprint is up so you're expecting
actually almost decline excluding newsprint in the fourth
quarter?
A. Yes that is correct.
Barton Crockett, J.P. Morgan
Q. I wanted to talk a little bit more about
the TV line in terms of the September growth excluding
acquisitions was up about 5%. How sustainable is that rate
going into the fourth quarter? I assume there is a bit
of a Cubs boost there and that will help us through the
first part of October and unfortunately not after that.
A.
Same-store sales were about 5%-5.5% and as far as that
being sustainable, it gets more difficult as we go into
October because despite the fact that political advertising
is only about 2% to 3% of our annual total, it is still
represented some fairly significant dollars in October.
Again, not as much as many of our peers, but it gets tough
to put an increase on that. The other thing that political
does is it tightens the overall market in the pricing structure
in markets. So, we're cautiously optimistic for fourth
quarter. We look for the quarter overall to be in positive
territory and we think we'll be ahead of our peers.
Q. I was wondering if you could give us
a sense of what you think is behind some of the market-by-market
department store weakness. In other words, is it mainly
them cutting back on advertising or more rotation into
other media like television?
A. We probably have not been
impacted as much as others. Chicago market has done well.
Our department store revenues for the entire year are probably
about flat. I think it's probably for the two reasons that
you had mentioned. We do see that some of the department
stores are cutting back on their promotions because of
some weak sales. To a lesser extent, some of it is probably
moving to other advertising mediums.
James Marsh, S.G. Cowen
Q. You talked about the sequential improvement
in help wanted. I was wondering if you could contrast that
with real estate. Have you seen a sequential slow down
in real estate and is it possible that you might see the
gains for help wanted offset by weakness in real estate.
A.
In terms of the classified help wanted, we mentioned we
were down about 7% in the third quarter and that compared
to a 15% decline in the second quarter and an 11% decline
in the first quarter, so we do see the sequential improvement
there. In September, national job market was up and the
temporary job market has been strong for the last five
months and that's generally a leading indicator as to where
permanent job creation is going. In terms of real estate,
we were up 10% in the third quarter, 11% in the second
and 13% in the first so we're still seeing double-digit
gains there. New construction in Chicago continues to be
strong and the resale market in New York is pretty strong.
I think as long as interest rates and the mortgage rates
remain low, we see that as a continuing good market in
real estate.
Q. You mentioned that your local is actually
stronger than national. I wanted to get a sense why you
thought that might be different than the rest of the industry
and is it possibly related to the comps related to political.
A.
Part of that could be the location of our markets, in that
in L.A. , New York and Chicago there are a lot of national
agencies there that we consider local. Political normally
does come national so that would have an impact, also.
This is something that I have heard other broadcasters
mention and has come out in relation to radio. I think
this may be more of a radio problem than a television problem.
Let me just mention something regarding radio because it
is a question we get asked a fair amount. There are these
claims that are made about radio taking share from newspapers.
Through the '90's there was the consolidation factor, which
gave radio a little bit more pricing power and I think better
sales performance. But what we've seen is advertisers reacting
to heavier commercial loads which is one of the things that
gave radio some potential for growth in the '90's. But now
the radio industry is faced with same-store sales and negative
reaction from some advertisers because of clutter. As we
look to the future, they have got technology issues like
MP3 players and satellite radio. So we're just seeing some
backlash from advertisers to potential radio increases. I
don't see this issue of radio taking share from newspapers
as a problem for us. As a matter of fact, with our launch
of publications targeting the18 to 34 demo, we look to take
market share from them.
Paul Ginocchio, Deutsche Bank
Q. What is going to happen to the equity
line when you pull out La Opinion, is there any effect?
How much are you willing to invest in EBITDA margin into
these sort of new newspapers?
A. On the equity line no effect
there with La Opinion. In terms of the niche publications,
again we feel making these kinds of modest investments
for us makes sense. We can handle the very modest losses
upfront and we see these turning in two to three years.
Q. So there is really no affect on the EBITDA
line?
A. No, not materially.
Kevin Gruneich, Bear Stearns
Q. The 6% TV cash cost increase. Can you
break it out between programming and non-programming?
A.
In terms of the 6% increase in the TV expenses roughly
half of it is programming and half is -- are other costs
increases.
Q. On the newspaper side, non-newsprint
cash cost broken out with FTE's versus the cost?
A. FTE's
were about flat in the third quarter so the other expenses
were up around 3% or so.
John Janedis, Banc of America Securities
Q. On the TV side, can you give us a little
more color on some of the categories within local and national?
A.
On the TV side, our strongest category continues to be
automotive. In the third quarter the weak category was
soft drinks. I would say that was the category that moved,
I believe on just a 1-quarter basis, from spot to network
TV. So that was an issue for us. Movies, we have seen to
be about flat and we see releases in the fourth quarter
that should be comparable to last year and they would be
back loaded into the year. So that will be important for
our December. Retail categories was about +2% for us so
that gives you some sense of our more important categories.
Automotive is the most important category for us with about
19% of our business and that is a little bit less than
many of our traditional affiliate peers that have 25% to
35% of their business in automotive.
Q. Is that Auto trend continuing into the
fourth quarter?
A. Yes, it is. It continues to be strong.
Q. On the publishing side, can you tell
us how some of the more mid-sized markets are performing
to the overall publishing segment and also within help
wanted.
A. In terms of our mid-sized markets, the
two markets that have been hit the hardest are in the Northeast,
Baltimore and the Hartford papers kind of in help wanted
advertising and in total classified. The areas that have
done very well in relation to our other newspapers are
in Florida , both in Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale ; their
results are a lot better than the group as a whole, both
in terms of help wanted and total classified.
Jim Goss, Barrington Research
Q. The tax rate assumptions for fourth quarter
and going forward relative to the description you had in
your press release and also blended average rates and your
debt right now for your interest costs.
A. The tax rate
assumption for the fourth quarter is 38.8% and in terms
of our debt, we currently have about $2.2 billion of debt
outstanding at this point. We have commercial paper of
around $125-$150 million of that $2.2 billion and the interest
rates we're paying on the commercial paper are somewhere
around 1%, maybe slightly higher. The average rate on our
overall debt is about 5.75%.
Q. Wondering if you might comment on the
outcome of the Freedom Communications issue and how it
might affect the L.A. Times competitively, if at all right
now and going forward.
A. As far as the outcome of the Freedom
auction, we think this is a good outcome for us. We don't
think there will be any impact competitively on the L.A.
Times. We have had a good track in Orange County recently
in terms of improving our readership down there. We don't
expect any forays into L.A. Times territory that would
cause us additional expense. We think they will continue
to operate very rationally and operate more as a locally
concentrated Orange County paper. We don't see a problem.
Q. And can you comment on the rough
level of profitability at the L.A. Times now that
you have had it for a few years, vis-a-vis your other papers
and your ultimate goals?
A. As you know, we have taken
a lot of cost out there over time. The mission when our
people went in there was to improve the editorial product.
We feel that's been done and the paper is a lot more navigable.
A lot of expense has been taken out. We see some more potential
out there for expense savings that John Puerner continues
to work on. The economy is a concern out there. But we
saw margin improvement despite a weak economy out there
in third quarter. That margin improvement probably took
us a half step back, but again, we see a lot of potential.
We achieved the margin improvement despite a weak revenue
picture in the L.A. market. So when things turn we're really
well positioned.
Q. Are the L.A. Times margins close to Tribune
or Newsday margins or is it still quite a ways away?
A.
It's a lot closer than it was and we feel we can get it
closer than it is right now.
Q. Comment on the regulatory issues since
you're as much in the middle of that as anyone.
A. We feel
confident that the cross-ownership piece, that is of most
importance to us, will stay in place. So that restriction
will be loosened and we will not have any overhanging issues.
We feel the cap is likely to end up with 35%, which is
okay with us because we're at 30% for FCC purposes. We
think the easing of duopoly restrictions will stay in place,
also.
Michael Kupinski, A.G.Edwards and Sons
Q. I wanted to drill down on a little of
the television side. Hearst Argyle said it was adversely
affected by some weak advertising due to weakness in the
Northeast and particularly in Boston . Are you not seeing
any regional disparities in your television group at this
time?
A. Yes, most definitely we are. In the Northeast,
we're seeing it in Hartford . With Hearst Argyle having
Boston as such an important part of their broadcast group,
I would imagine we're seeing some of the same. Also Verizon,
which was a very heavy advertiser particularly in New York
the last fourth quarter, which was not that strong. But
again, I think their results given their traditional affiliate
position are going to be more difficult than ours given
the political comps they have to deal with. So again, we're
not expecting those kinds of negative numbers in the fourth
quarter.
Q. Could you tell me what particular
stations are actually caring your television group
at this point? Is it a particular region or is it like
Chicago , for instance?
A. Chicago has been strong. The
question actually was asked earlier about the Cubs advantage
and certainly that did help us. But as we get towards the
end of the season, most of those games go to network. Los
Angeles was a little bit stronger, Chicago was stronger,
our station in Washington is in the growth mode as is Houston
, and our Seattle duopoly has been stronger. So it really
varies market-to-market. But I'd say overall we're picking
up market share and as we do traditionally in a non-political
year.
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