Third
Quarter 2005 Earnings
Conference Call
October 13, 2005
Ruthellyn Musil, Sr. Vice-President/Corporate Relations
Good morning, and welcome to Tribune’s conference
call to review 2005 third quarter results. Our opening remarks
will be brief, we’ll have plenty of time for questions,
and expect to finish within the hour.
Our speakers this morning are CEO Dennis FitzSimons, Don
Grenesko, senior vice president and chief financial officer
and Scott Smith, president of Tribune Publishing.
Turning to our press release, Tribune’s
third quarter diluted EPS of 7 cents on a GAAP basis includes
a net non-operating loss of 43 cents per share. Our release
contains the information needed to make a meaningful comparison
to First Call estimates.
Now, before turning the call over to
Dennis, a reminder that our discussion may include forward-looking
statements that are covered in greater detail in Tribune’s
SEC filings.
Dennis...
Dennis FitzSimons, Chairman, President and CEO
Good morning.
Our third quarter results reflect the continuing soft ad
environment which is impacting both our newspaper and television
groups. Our results also reflect our continued focus on expense
control. Earnings per share include the impact of the Matthew
Bender Tax Court ruling and Don will have some additional
detail on that in a minute.
Consolidated operating revenues were down 1%, although advertising
revenue in publishing was up 2% over last year, or 3% excluding
Newsday. Circulation revenue declines of 7% were slightly
better than second quarter, and we project those trends will
continue to improve. Scott will talk more about that.
In television, third quarter revenue for our group was down
6%. Improved baseball revenue in New York for Mets telecasts
and in Chicago for the Cubs telecasts, partially offset the
impact of an overall soft market and People Meter ratings
declines.
Our New Orleans stations had no revenue in September as
a result of Hurricane Katrina. Both stations were knocked
off the air and 121 employees were displaced. Thankfully,
none of them suffered serious injury. Our stations did have
significant property damage. We are covered for property
damage and business interruption through our insurance.
Now despite evacuating its facility, the staff at our New
Orleans ABC affiliate, WGNO, provided continuous coverage
by working in conjunction with the Baton Rouge ABC affiliate,
WBRZ. The combined news staffs were actually working and
living out of WBRZ, and our people did a weeklong nonstop
job of covering this tragedy.
Our Washington D.C. bureau also coordinated a record number
of live shots and packages for our stations all around the
country.
Some other developments during the quarter. As you know,
Pat Mullen resigned last week as head of our broadcasting
group. We thank Pat for his contributions to our company
and we wish him well.
We have excellent experienced leadership in the Broadcast
Group. Our regional vice-presidents, John Reardon and John
Vitanovec are reporting directly to me in this transition
period. Prior to their current roles, John Reardon ran sales
at WGN TV and then moved to be General Manager of KTLA for
eight years. John Vitanovec was CFO of WGN, then ran our
Boston station before returning to Chicago as general manager
of WGN. Both have experience with the Superstation. And both
have 20 years experience at Tribune and are very strong leaders.
Given this environment, everyone in the broadcast division
is focused on improving results.
The new fall season is off to a reasonable start.
Sex and the City launched in September in late fringe. Performance
has generally been good, particularly in the larger markets
and on the Superstation; ratings for young women have been
especially strong.
On The WB, new season premieres are encouraging with returning
shows like Gilmore Girls, Everwood and Smallville performing
well. Of the new shows, Supernatural on Tuesdays night stands
out, and that has shown steady growth each week. Actually
this Tuesday was the best performance to date.
One change here in looking at the year-to-year numbers is
that Fox has premiered their shows before the baseball playoffs
this year
In publishing, in addition to better circulation trends,
the ad settlement process at Newsday and Hoy New York is
coming to a close.
At the Los Angeles Times, Dean Baquet
was promoted to editor, and John O’Loughlin, formerly
GM of RedEye in Chicago, will now head up marketing at
the Times.
Speaking of RedEye, it is now officially a free publication
and one of 40 targeted publications that collectively will
generate over $300 million in revenue this year.
Online revenue grew 46% in the quarter due primarily to
strength in recruitment. For the year, online revenue is
expected to be over $175 million.
Given the overall environment, we continue
to make cost control a priority. In addition to tightly
controlling day-to-day operating expenses, our business
units are looking at structural changes where they make
sense. An example of this in the third quarter, was Newsday’s
staff reduction at its New York city newsroom as it puts
more focus on its core market of Long Island.
The TV group also announced reductions
in news staffing in Philadelphia and San Diego. The NBC
O&Os in those
markets will now produce local primetime newscasts for those
stations. We’ve had an arrangement like this in Miami
for some time, with good results.
Now, let’s go to Don, and then Scott; I’ll
be back to wrap up.
Don Grenesko, Sr. Vice-President/Finance and Administration
As Dennis mentioned, we continue to focus on reducing company-wide
expenses.
On a consolidated basis, cash expenses grew only 1% in the
quarter, excluding the $55 million charge we took a year
ago to settle advertiser claims at Newsday and Hoy.
In publishing, cash expenses increased
2%, excluding the charge. Publishing’s staffing levels
were 3% below last year, but compensation still rose by
1% due to higher retirement costs. Newsprint and ink increased
5%, reflecting higher newsprint prices, somewhat offset
by lower consumption and our switch to lighter weight paper.
In broadcasting, cash operating expenses were down 1%. This
was largely due to lower expenses on the radio/entertainment
line.
TV cash expenses rose 4% primarily due to $2 million in
costs related to Hurricane Katrina; expenses associated with
outsourcing our news in Philadelphia and San Diego; and higher
broadcast rights incurred with the launch of the new TV season.
Turning back to consolidated results,
operating cash flow, excluding the special charge last
year, was $343 million compared to $369 million in 2004’s
third quarter. The 2005 third quarter results also include
a net non-operating loss of $.43 per share related primarily
to the adverse Matthew Bender tax ruling
As noted in our earnings release, we increased our tax reserve
by $610 million in the third quarter by recording additional
income tax expense of $150 million and by adding $460 million
of goodwill to the balance sheet.
The $610 million reserve is somewhat lower than the preliminary
estimate of $625 million that we provided in our September
27th press release. The reduction is the result of refining
our estimates of the taxes and related interest. Also, after
finalizing our accounting treatment, the amount charged to
the income statement is a bit higher, and the increase to
goodwill is below our preliminary estimates.
Debt, excluding the PHONES, was $2.0 billion at the end
of the third quarter, and increased to $2.9 billion shortly
thereafter as a result of paying the federal portion of the
Matthew Bender tax liability. The tax payments were financed
through our commercial paper program. For your modeling purposes,
total interest expense will be about
$50 million in the fourth quarter.
Diluted average shares outstanding declined by 3 percent
due to stock repurchases. As noted in our press release,
we repurchased 3.6 million shares in the quarter, for a total
of 9.8 million shares year-to-date.
Now, I’ll turn things over to
Scott.
Scott Smith, President/Tribune Publishing
Thanks Don, and good morning everyone.
Publishing group operating revenues
in the third quarter were $980 million, even with last
year. Ad revenues grew by 2%, or 3% excluding Newsday,
while circulation revenue was down 7%. I’ll talk
more about circulation trends in a moment.
Ad revenue growth was led by the Chicago Tribune, Orlando
Sentinel and South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Our Florida newspapers
benefited some in period 9 because advertising was soft during
the hurricanes last year. Los Angeles was about even with
a year ago. And Newsday revenues were down less in the third
quarter than the first half. By category:
Retail advertising was up 1%, with Chicago, Orlando and
Hartford posting the best gains.
Preprint revenues were up 1% with the decline in Newsday
more than offset by mid- single digit growth in L.A., Chicago
and South Florida, reinforcing that our capital investments
are paying off.
National advertising was down 3% with declines in technology,
wireless, movies and transportation partially offset by good
growth in the financial category.
Classified advertising revenues for the group increased
7%, largely driven by growth in on-line help wanted. Third
quarter revenue for the CareerBuilder network was up 72%
year-over-year, and increased 78% year to date. CareerBuilder
network traffic for August was up 13% to approximately 17
million unique visitors, compared to 14 million unique visitors
for Monster. Overall, help-wanted revenue rose 17%. Real
estate was up 16% while auto was down 4%.
Let me turn now to circulation. We said we expected to show
meaningful improvement in trends by September, and we did.
For the third quarter total net paid circulation for our
11 metropolitan daily newspapers averaged 3 million copies
daily and 4.3 million copies on Sunday. Those figures are
down 2% daily and 3% Sunday versus the prior year.
Circulation most valued by advertisers --
individually paid copies -- were down only 1.3% daily
and 2.8% Sunday. And home delivery results were better than
that.
Circulation revenues were down more than copies due to continued
selective discounting. This includes extending the time period
for introductory discounts and from adding days to current
subscription plans, and supports our strategy to optimize
circulation economics. We are starting to see smaller declines
in circulation revenue in the monthly trends as well.
Going forward we will include similar information on group
circulation in each quarterly earnings release in response
to your request for more information on this front.
When the September ABC FAS-FAX report is released in early
November, Tribune Publishing, excluding Newsday, will report
total circulation down 4% daily and Sunday. Individually
paid circulation will be down about 3.5%.
ABC has released the audited March results
for Newsday and we’ve agreed that Newsday’s
September results will not be included in FAS-FAX but will
be issued when that audit is also complete.
The six-month reports for each of our other newspapers reflect
trends that improved slightly in the second quarter, and
much more in the third quarter as editorial innovations and
better marketing took hold.
With that, I’ll turn it back to
Dennis.
Dennis FitzSimons
As we begin the fourth quarter, publishing ad revenue trends
in national and classified are similar to the third quarter,
while retail is off some. Ratings issues at our TV stations
continue to impact revenues. Fourth quarter pacing is down
in the low double-digit range.
Our strong focus on costs will continue. For the full year,
expenses should be flat to up slightly, despite higher costs
for retirement plans, as well as newsprint.
As Don mentioned, we’ve repurchased
about 10 million shares year-to-date. With the stock at
its current level, we expect to continue to be active in
this area.
Q&A
Steven Barlow, Prudential
Q. If you could talk a little bit about the circulation
trends specifically in Baltimore and in L.A.? And then related
to Newsday, what kind of pricing power do you think you have
in 2006 now that you have lapped the decline in prices that
you did last September?
A. On circulation results by market,
we’re going
to get into those when the ABC FAS FAX reports are out.
I would just say at a high-level that both in Baltimore
and in
Los Angeles, particularly when you focus on individually
paid circulation, the trends in both markets are significantly
better.
Newsday pricing, we have cycled essentially the rate reductions
that occurred in the third quarter a year ago. So we are
seeing on the ROP front some improvement in the revenue trends
at Newsday, and we would expect that to continue.
Q. In terms of the trends, I am curious
on the pricing per unit. Do you plan to have a price
increase in ‘06
in Newsday and really overall in the company?
A. We’re in the midst of budgeting like most of our
peers are at this juncture and continue to work on our pricing
plans. I don’t think Newsday has decided overall
on exactly what they will do. As always, those rate decisions
will vary by category as well.
Alexia Quadrani, Bear Stearns
Q. With regard to circulation, do you expect to continue
the rate of discounting going forward now that you have seen
some improvement in circulation?
A. We are working to manage our overall circulation economics,
which includes looking at discounts relative to the cost
of acquiring new subscribers. We do think it is smart to
continue discounting as opposed to run the risk of losing
subscribers over a price increase and then incur more costs
to acquire a new subscriber. So yes, discounting will continue,
but we also believe the circulation revenue decline is narrowing
and that that will continue as well.
Q. You had mentioned that you expect to be active in the
share buyback program in the fourth quarter. Is that a change
from like you said just a couple of weeks ago in your conference
call given that you have to increase your average because
of the IRS deal?
You had suggested before that you were going to be less
active I guess given the new leverage, but are you now going
to be a bit more active, or is this pretty much consistent
and will you be opportunistic?
A. Actually I think we will be consistent with what we suggested
on our call on September 27.
Q. Could you give us the preprint growth for Los Angeles
for the quarter?
A. We said it was up mid-single digits.
John Janedis, Bank of America
Q. Just on the TV segment, I think in the past you have
spoken about some of the movie money moving to network. Has
that continued over the past few months, and it is only for
the fourth quarter?
A. Actually movies look positive right
now, particularly in periods 10 and 11. In terms of the
number of releases we are seeing right now, it is projected
that there will be 60 releases in the fourth quarter
versus 39 last year. So this appears to be a positive
category at least in the pacing we’re seeing so
far.
Q. Does that mean the declines for the fourth quarter then
are really driven by the rating declines as opposed to specific
categories that are additionally falling apart?
A. In TV we are seeing some weakness in the automotive category
and in the fast food category. I think what we have is some
weak markets. We are cycling through to some degree in the
top three markets where LPMs have now been a factor for a
full year. But it is a combination of some rating weakness
in access time periods with the LPMs being less friendly
to younger skewing stations and then some weakness in key
categories for us.
Automotive is important for everybody.
It is less -- probably
about 18%-19% of our business -- compared to some
of the affiliate stations which are in the 30% range. And
we would expect and hope, as we look at some of our markets
for ‘06 where there will be significant political
activity, that we will see some tightening of the market.
Right now it is a buyer’s market. But those of us
who have been around for a long time and have seen it go
the other way, we would hope in ‘06 that we will
see some of these categories come back, as well as political
and Olympics tightening things up a little bit.
Q. On the auto side, are you seeing much of a difference
between domestic and foreign?
A. Foreign is a little bit better.
Lauren Fine, Merrill Lynch
Q. For the quarter you provided what
newspaper ad revenues looked like with and without Newsday,
and I’m wondering
if you could give that same comparison for September and
any of the classified breakdowns for September as well? I’m
trying to understand how much Newsday did or did not improve
in September.
A. I don’t have the exact figure,
but Newsday had a reasonably good September. So the spread
in revenue growth for the group with and without Newsday
was pretty close in the month of September.
And then in September, in terms of classified by category,
auto was down 2%, help-wanted was up 24%, and real estate
28%. So total classified was up 13% in September.
Q. On the TV station side, given the
pacings decline that you are looking at in the fourth
quarter, thinking about what’s going on with WB overall, and speculation in
the market regarding Time Warner’s attitude towards
their ownership of the WB network, have you given any real
thought to how important that relationship is or is not
to you prospectively? Also where you are in your affiliation
agreement, which I believe had originally been due to expire
this year but you had a one-year extension?
A. I think WB will continue to be important for us as a
source of primetime programming. It represents about 17%
of our total revenues. So we continue to value that relationship.
We will be in discussions in October with Warner Bros. on
the affiliation renewal. They have indicated to us they are
more interested in doing a long-term deal, certainly more
than one year, and we are interested in the same thing. So
those conversations will heat up again next week, and we
will look to get something done.
Was there another piece of that question regarding their
attitude towards the network?
Q. Well, there has just been speculation
in the market as there always is regarding Time Warner’s
desire to continue to own the WB Network. And obviously
that raises questions for you all. I mean, you have had
the same question in the past about what you would do
in the event that they were to put that up for sale.
A. First of all, what we are hearing from them is a little
bit different than the rumors that go around the Street periodically.
Sometimes I wonder if they are fueled by UPN going back to
the early days of the network. Warner has indicated to us
that the network continues to be strategically important
for them. Obviously, like everybody else in the media space,
they want to limit losses as much as they possibly can, and
we will work together with them to try to help them accomplish
that goal. It is still strategically important. It represents
a significant part of their television studio output. So
we believe it still is important, and we certainly agree
that it is important for our group.
Q. And could you maybe just update
us on your relationship with them from a funding perspective?
I know in the release you indicated you no longer had
to book losses given that you have written down the book
value, but I’m wondering
where you are on the cash funding?
A. There are really two components. One is a reverse compensation,
which is an agreed on payment every year that is part of
the affiliation agreement, and then we do fund a certain
percentage of losses. Our ownership percentage as you know
is 22.5%.
Q. But where are you year-to-date in terms of any remaining
obligation you might have this year?
A. Well, we are capped as far as our funding of losses right
now. That is part of the overall affiliation renewal agreement.
Brian Shipman, UBS
Q. I just wanted to clarify one thing you mentioned. You
said that classified in the fourth quarter was pacing comparable
to the third-quarter results, yet September was up very strong.
Classified was up very strong in September, 13%, on an easy
comparison. So is fourth-quarter pacing more similar to July
and August in that 4 to 6% range?
A. That comment was applied to the quarter as a whole, which
is more in the 5% range. I mentioned that more in the year-over-year
comparisons benefited in period nine versus the hurricane
period a year ago. That benefit impacted the classified category
the most. So the pop in classified in period nine was partially
the year later impact of normal revenue versus hurricane
a year ago.
Douglas Arthur, Morgan Stanley
Q. I guess just in that vein, your
retail rebounded a little bit in September, and you’re saying it is off to a
weak start in the fourth quarter. So I’m asking for
a little elaboration on that. How weak is it? Do you see
that continuing in November and December, and where is
it coming from?
A. Well, what we see overall in retail is concentration
of spending around the key promotion period. So back-to-school
was reasonably strong.
Now we’re in the lull period in early October, and
frankly it remains to be seen how strong the holiday season
retail advertising is. Retailers are putting their money
where they think it will have most value for them, so you’re
seeing somewhat bigger seasonal swings than you had in
prior years.
And where the weakness is, it is hard
to pinpoint. It is different by market and also different
by category within retail. It’s a mixed picture,
which is I think what you are hearing from others in
the industry as well.
Q. So I guess following that logic, you would hope to see
some strength then as you get closer to Thanksgiving, post-Thanksgiving
period?
A. We would hope to, but again you
just don’t have
great visibility a couple of months out on that. We’re
hearing again a mixed picture on the retail front.
William
Bird, Citigroup
Q. I was wondering on newspapers how aggressively do you
plan to manage down other circulation? Could you put any
numbers to it? And do you expect Local People Meter launches
in D.C., Philly, Dallas and Atlanta to press your ratings
to the same degree as in your top three markets?
A. Well, on other paid circulation, for us it is under 5%
of total circulation, both daily and Sunday, which is a low
proportion compared to many of our major market peers. It
is down in the most recent ABC period overall for our markets.
There is value in other paid, and we are managing that market-by-market
to the value that is there. But overall we are putting our
emphasis, as I said, on home delivery and single copy, and
that is where are our trends have improved significantly.
On the second part of your question, we are seeing somewhat
similar trends in the other LPM markets. It once again is
a situation where the active participation required by LPMs
seems to undercount the younger viewers and that disproportionately
impacts our stations.
Paul Ginocchio, Deutsche Bank
Q. Obviously there’s some asset
sales going on in the market on the TV side for some
pretty high multiples. I just wonder how you think about
those prices being achieved in the market for other TV
stations being sold into duopolies and sort of maybe
the value gap the market is giving you for your WB stations?
A. Well, I think what you are seeing is the premiums being
paid in many instances to establish a duopoly, and there
is value created through elimination of expense, and we think
that kind of consolidation is going to continue. And as we
look at our portfolio, whether we can benefit ourselves by
trading on a tax efficient basis to establish duopoly positions,
we will do that if that is going to benefit our shareholders.
Q. So you will sell assets to duopolies, or do you want
to buy into duopolies?
A. We would go either way or trade
a single station in one market to establish duopoly position
in another. Whether that would be an even up kind of
trade or two stations for one, however it worked. But
I do think you’re
going to see more and more of this as the consolidation
in the industry increases. But it is not unlike what you
saw in cable and radio where people would trade to rationalize
their portfolios, create regional clusters. I think you
will see the same thing in the TV space. I think that is
part of what you are seeing, not only purchases but trades.
Peter
Appert, Goldman Sachs
Q. Could you help us understand better
what the cost dynamics in ‘06 might look like as
you cycle through some of the cost cuts you have implemented
over the last 18 months?
A. We are still working on our budgeting for 2006, so we
will be getting budgets back from each of our business units
over the next month or so. But we are going to continue to
have a very strong focus on our controls and our costs going
forward. We are not expecting any type of significant increase.
I think that it will be relatively low on our costs going
forward into 2006.
Q. How about thinking about it this
way, then. Can you just remind me in terms of the major
cuts in terms of headcount reduction again in September ‘04,
correct? And then can you just remind me of the timing
of the further cuts that came after that?
A. We had some in September ‘04,
and we have had some that have been ongoing, but relatively
small, that our business units have looked at and come
up with. But those were the major ones.
Q. Can you provide any further insights
on Pat’s
departure, and specifically what were the points of difference
in terms of strategy or focus that led to the decision
to separate?
A. I don’t know that it would be appropriate. We just
came to a decision that change would be a positive. Pat is
a good person, a good executive and we wish him well. I don’t
think it would be appropriate to comment beyond that.
I would say just one thing on your question regarding cuts.
In broadcasting the arrangements that we have gone into in
Philadelphia and San Diego, probably represent about 2% of
FTEs on the broadcast side. Then the Newsday cut most recently.
We are reducing 45 positions in the New York City newsroom.
These are just a small piece of what has been done across
the group. But a lot more has been done, the attrition and
the other things across both broadcast and newspaper group.
Craig Huber, Lehman Brothers
Q. I just wanted to thank you for putting all this circulation
volume data in the press release and also in your discussions.
It is good to actually get the data ahead of time. I appreciate
that.
My other question has to do with margins.
It looks like your 21.6% EBITDA margins in newspapers
was the lowest Tribune had in that division since before
1995, if you exclude the 9/11 impact of the 2001 third
quarter, and it is somewhat similar on the TV side. The
margin there looks like it was the lowest since before
1997. I just wondered when I look at your company and
your peers just given the mass of talk that has gone
over the last four to five years, it says something here
about taking out editorial staff, you’re getting
into some pretty serious muscle here. I mean, is there
really that much more cost-cutting you can do in those
two divisions to help offset these margins that are at
8, 10-plus year lows?
A. Well, let me talk about publishing margins. First of
all, in the third quarter, you essentially had a phenomenon
where revenues are flat with the decline in circulation revenue
and some growth, and not great growth, in advertising. And
where all of the cost increase was newsprint prices and non-cash
pension costs. So we are in the midst of a period were those
two costs are going up at large rates. We think those increases
will moderate over time. And in terms of our ability to run
more efficiently, we continue to identify opportunities to
do just that. We are looking at that newspaper by newspaper,
and where we see the smart opportunities to become more efficient,
we take advantage of it. That is a fundamental ongoing discipline,
and we are committed to continuing it going forward. And
so we think with relatively modest revenue growth, we can
see some margin improvement over time.
Q. What was your actual non-newsprint cash cost? You mentioned
cost was up 1%.
A. Non-newsprint cash cost was up 1.6% in the third quarter,
and again almost all of that was the increase in non-cash
pension cost. That essentially gets counted as cash even
though we are making no cash payment into the pension plan.
Q. Are you guys saying though if times
don’t get
any better whether revenues are slightly down or slightly
up, do you have anything else that you can cut without
cutting into some serious muscle here? I guess that is
my question after four to five years of cost cutting. You
guys and also your peers have been very tight on cost.
A. We believe there are continued smart cost reductions
that we can take, yes.
Q. Is that also true switching over
to the other segment on the TV side? That there is still
significant cost you could take out there if trends don’t
improve?
A. The TV side is more a function
of programming costs, and the margin situation is a revenue
issue, and the declining revenue in this soft ad environment
has made it very difficult. And we were operating at
a 42 margin, which was a high watermark for us. So we
need to get out of the buyer’s
market that we happen to be in right now and things, we
would hope, would improve.
Q. You had a great quarter in your entertainment line with
the Cubs. Obviously the Cubs are not playing for all 12 months,
but can you give us a little hint over the next few quarters
what you expect in the entertainment line for revenues and
cost? I mean these are very powerful numbers there.
A. We had two things going on there. One was that Tribune
Entertainment was producing less shows, but the Cubs certainly
had a very good revenue year. Attendance was very strong.
Ticket prices were up. We would expect next year for the
Cubs to be another good year. We are putting an addition
on Wrigley Field that will add close to 2000 seats, and we
also received increased revenues from the rooftops across
the street this year from a settlement that was reached.
So there are some real positives with the Cubs, and we would
expect those to continue next year.
I might just mention that there is a swing in Cubs games.
We will have about five fewer in the fourth quarter of this
year versus last year. The third quarter had four additional
games so that swung the profitability of the Cubs in the
third quarter.
Michael Kupinski, A.G. Edwards
Q. I know that you are in the midst of budgets, but do you
have a general preliminary goal for circulation next year?
And then in L.A., national seems to still be lagging. Has
the return of General Motors advertising in L.A. Times boosted
the numbers at all?
And then finally in L.A. I understand that there might
be further rate discounting and may even be some issues
with Advo’s advertising anchor, Albertson’s
given the potential restructuring at that company. I was
wondering has there been any changes in the competitive
landscape in L.A. with Advo?
A. As we have said, we’re focused
on individually paid circulation in our core newspaper
market, and our overall objective there is to stabilize
individually paid circulation. We have made really significant
progress over the last couple of quarters. We expect
to make more progress in the fourth quarter, and our
goal is in general stability. Whether that is up or down
a little, it will vary by market, but that is our goal.
Your third question related to Advo,
and then I will come back to your second one. It is a
very competitive market in L.A., but we continue to like
our market position relative to Advo with our blend of
in paper and mail distribution tied in with the Value
Network we have created with other newspapers. I said
our revenue growth in the third quarter there was mid-single
digits in preprint. There is not a lot of pricing activity
in that market upwards, but our prices are essentially
stable, and we are growing volume a little bit. We continue
to believe we’re advantaged
over the long-term.
General Motors is back. It has helped some, but General
Motors in total is not advertising as much now as they did
earlier in the year. So it is a more modest net benefit at
the present time. Where General Motors and the domestic manufacturers
are going in terms of ad spending is an interesting question.
They have scaled back some, but what we are hearing is they
are not selling as many units as they would like. So there
is an open question whether they need to return to more aggressive
promotion.
And overall national is somewhat of
a mixed bag in L.A. But as Dennis said earlier, we’re
seeing some lift in the fourth quarter in the movie category
due to more movie releases. Plus, they are buying more
color advertising in the Times.
Q. And I was just wondering -- you may have said this --
but did you break out the newsprint prices in the quarter?
How much where they up, and what the consumption was down
to account for the 5% increase in cost?
A. That is a tricky calculation because
of our conversion to lightweight newsprint where essentially
tons are down a lot, but the price per ton actually goes
up for lightweight newsprint. A key way to think of it,
though, is the newsprint price per page on lightweight
is about 2% less then normal weight. So off-line we will
give you a calculation, but it has got to be a blend
of lightweight and normal weight newsprint, and it’s
just a complicated calculation.
The key is newsprint expense was only up 5% for the quarter
where market prices for newsprint were up like 9%. Maybe
a little more.
Q. And do you have any thoughts about how that looks going
into the fourth quarter?
A. Again, there was a price increase announced. It looks
like it has taken hold. We will have a meaningful price increase
to work against, but we continue to manage consumption, including
through the conversion to lightweight that is essentially
complete. We will get about 2% benefit in the fourth quarter
versus a year ago from the lightweight conversion.
Fred Searby, J.P. Morgan
Q. Where do we stand if we drill down on Newsday? I know
the auto dealers -- you set up a fraud reserve -- have you
exhausted that? When will you reverse that? So if you could
give us some update on the litigation that ensued the circulation
fraud at Newsday? And then where do we stand also in terms
of market share, in terms of inserts in your Long Island
market? Some of those businesses, it sounds like it is heavily
competitive. And then you talked about buying back shares.
Are you done with the discussions with the ratings agencies
and you see yourself in the short-term moving back and aggressively
buying back shares as you were earlier in the year before
that abatement?
A. Well, as Dennis said, overall we are making excellent
progress on resolving the ad settlements at Newsday. On the
auto dealer front, there is some meaningful progress there
as well, but it is not to the point where anything is official
yet. We are not resolved the suit, but what we are seeing
is there is not a lot of interest on the part of some of
those dealers in aggressively pursuing that litigation.
Q. But where do we stand on the reserve you set up for that
fraud. Have you reversed that?
A. We have the $90 million reserve
which we continue to believe is adequate, and until there
is clear resolution on some of these parts, we’re
not going to change that reserve.
Q. And then the issue on inserts with Harold Matzner and
some of the other chatter in the market, can you update us
there?
A. Well, as I mentioned, preprint revenues are down at Newsday.
There are a couple of reasons for that.
First is the decline in circulation. And second, is competition
from a former preprint sales agent that we terminated essentially
for what we determined was unethical behavior. We are working
to get back to customers who left us and believe that our
newsprint preprint sales and distribution capabilities remain
advantaged for the longer-term. But New York and Long Island,
like L.A., is a very competitive preprint market, and we
are working through it to our best advantage. But we did
conclude we had to terminate the company-owned by Harold
Matzner for what we deemed was unethical behavior.
Q. So do you see yourself winning back that business?
A. We’re working on it. We’re
not going to offer any predictions, but we are working
hard to do so.
Q. What is the update on your discussions with the ratings
agencies? You had mentioned that was an impediment in the
near-term to you getting more aggressive with the levers
on the share buyback. I wonder if you could update us on
the point.
A. Let me just give you one more specific on the Newsday
situation. $75 million of that $90 million is now accounted
for. 34,000 agreements have been signed with advertisers.
So there are a few that continue to be out there, including
the car dealers, but we really made good progress there,
and we are hoping to wrap that up completely in the near
future.
In terms of our discussions with the
ratings agencies, you may have seen that Fitch downgraded
us from a mid-A to an A-. We have had discussions with
Standard & Poor’s,
S&P, and we have not heard back from them as to what
they are going to do with our rating.
In terms of share ,repurchases we
have repurchased about $365 million worth of shares year-to-date.
We had planned to do about $500 million worth of share
repurchases this year, and what we have said is that
we’re going to
scale back from that $500 million. But we are still going
to be repurchasing shares in the fourth quarter, but not
to the extent that we had originally planned.
Q. And I assume that is due to Matthew Bender. But is there
any thought on divesting assets here in order to get more
aggressive? I mean are you looking at your portfolio mix?
Is there any radical rethink given the challenging environment
and some of the underperforming assets you have?
A. That is something we continually do in terms of evaluating
our portfolio. We are very focused on steps that we can take
to improve shareholder value, and certainly those factors
improve operating results, making sure we have the right
mix of assets. And what we consider certainly is the strategic
fit, what is the public and private market evaluation and
also maximizing returns on an after-tax basis.
So it would not make a lot of sense
for us to get specific right now, but believe me, we’re
looking at the portfolio and looking at everything that
we can do to improve shareholder value.
Lee Westerfield, Harris Nesbitt
Q. I just wanted to get a better understanding
of some of the cost items involved in both television
and in the radio and entertainment line. The costs, particularly
on the radio and entertainment, were down by $10 million,
and I’m
trying to get some better understanding there. Is that
Sammy Sosa? Was that diminished production expenses at
Tribune Entertainment? That is a handsome number, and how
would that be trending over the next two or three quarters,
please?
And then on television, you mentioned that
the costs were up partly due to Katrina,
$2 million, and otherwise it looks like a normal 3% run-rate
of growth. And I was wondering if you could add some color
as to what kind of program the syndication expenses in
terms of growth or levels over the next two to three quarters
we can expect there?
A. On the entertainment line, you’re
right. The expenses are down for two reasons. Lower player
salaries at the Cubs and entertainment was not producing
as many shows, so those were the reasons for that number
coming down.
On the programming side on TV, we’re
looking at Sex and the City, so we have got accelerated
amortization on that. Also, My Wife and Kids, which is
premiering this September. There is also a slight increase
on reverse compensation with the WB. So those three factors
will continue, offset somewhat by we are getting further
down in the runs with Friends and Raymond and those shows
that have been with us for awhile.
Q. The accelerated amortization on Sex and the City would
obviously hit an anniversary towards the end of this broadcast
season. So about 12 months from now you would be in a position
to have potentially political advertising growth and diminished
expenses on that, at least that particular piece of programming?
A. Yes.
Jim Goss, Barrington Research
Q. First, related to your tiered access
experience in Chicago, I’m wondering have you seen
signs that it has been successful and it is pointing
to a potential to monetize your Internet experience through
creating a better economic model? And has it done enough
that you would want to extend that experience to other
markets?
Secondly, specifically with the rebranding
of Marshall Fields through Macy’s in Chicago, I’m
wondering what you expect the impact on your retail revenues
to be from that event? And thirdly, and maybe this is
too small to get much into, but the decision to make
RedEye totally free. What are you seeing in terms of
readership and advertising impact?
A. So our Subscriber Advantage program in Chicago, where
subscribers either blend of print/online or online subscribers
get access to more content than our other Internet users,
we continue to be very encouraged by the results. What we
are seeing is that audience overall for chicagotribune.com
continues to grow. Page views are up significantly, and also
subscriber churn overall in Chicago is down. So we are seeing
benefits there. It is still too early, though, to decide
in a broader context whether we want to roll that out further.
In terms of rebranding of Marshall
Fields as Macy’s
here in Chicago, it is still early to tell how that is likely
to play out. Certainly you have got the broader Federated
context where it is likely as they have said that over time
they will move some money to more national advertising than
they do from local. But if you look at the rebranding here
in Chicago, they are going to need to promote Macy’s
in Chicago to a whole bunch of people that are very skeptical
about that name change, and we can actually see some upside
next year.
On the RedEye front, essentially what we concluded was the
audience is really good. Only a small portion of that was
willing to pay, and that the readership, revenue and profitability
of RedEye will be better as a free publication than a partially
paid publication.
Q. And one related item to the Subscriber Advantage program,
are you going to have an Internet only option at a certain
price, sort of like Dow Jones does for the Wall Street Journal
Online?
A. There is an Internet only price
for Subscriber Advantage in Chicago. So we’re testing
that model.
Jackie Thomas,
Thomas Weisel Partners
Q. I noticed that auto classifieds have been improving and
was wondering if you could give any details there. I was
also wondering if you could give us the online growth for
September?
A. On auto classified, we still see that as a pretty challenged
category, and the improvement in period nine again was Florida
hurricane related year-over-year comparison primarily. And
online revenue growth continued at a very healthy rate in
September. Very consistent with the year so far, and we would
project that in the 4th quarter.
Q. Do you have any specifics -- metrics?
A. We typically don’t break
that out. That is reported as part of our publishing
group.
Edward Atorino, Benchmark
Q. A question on equity income. Would
the fourth quarter be somewhere in the $15, $20 million
range given the improvement at Food Network and the other
changes? Would you hazard a run-rate for ‘06 second interest expense? I believe
you said $50 million for the fourth quarter. Is that net?
And would that equate to sort of a $200 million rate for ‘06?
A. The interest expense, yes. That is a gross amount of
$50 million, and that would probably be accurate in terms
of the interest expense projected for next year.
It would be in that range, although we had lower commercial
paper during the first part of this year, and we have done
some fixed-rate financing, plus interest rates are up. So
that run-rate on the fourth quarter probably is not a bad
estimate at this point.
Q. And that is before interest income, right?
A. Correct.
And then on the equity side, we had
a very strong fourth quarter last year, so the equity
results may be down a touch from that. We’re going
up against tough comps, and we are also planning some
higher promotional expense at some of our equity holdings.
Q. You mean down from last year?
A. Correct.
Q. And ‘06 you have got a pretty
good bounce I would think, no?
A. We have not projected that as of yet. But you are right,
though. The Food Network continues to be very strong. They
had a terrific upfront, and that is going to carry over until
next year. Comcast SportsNet also continues to do very well
here in Chicago.
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