
Mid-Year Media Review
June 18, 2002
Dennis FitzSimons, President and
Chief Operating Officer
Good afternoon. It's good to be here with you today to give
you a progress report on Tribune Company at the halfway point
of 2002.
First, let me introduce our group presenting
today: I'm Dennis FitzSimons, President and Chief Operating
Officer of Tribune. Jack Fuller, president of Tribune Publishing,
and Pat Mullen, president of Tribune Television will be presenting
along with me today. Don Grenesko, our senior VP and CFO,
will update you briefly on our financial picture, and David
Hiller, president of Tribune Interactive is joining us for
the question and answer session.
So, this afternoon we'd like to accomplish
three things:
- First, update you on our businesses and
how they're performing;
- Second, give you a look at the progress
we've made in reducing costs over the last two years, including
what we've accomplished with the Times Mirror acquisition,
and;
- Third, provide you some more detail about
how we are positioning Tribune for growth.
Let's begin with a look at business. What a
difference a year makes. When we presented at this conference
last year, the economic downturn and a particularly tough
advertising recession were well underway. Then, as you know
all too well, things got worse following 9/11.
But business is finally beginning to look up
and sequential improvement continues. So far in the second
quarter, publishing revenues are flat, compared to the 6%
decline we reported in the first quarter. In television, revenues
so far this quarter are up slightly, compared to the first
quarter, when they were down 3%. Tribune Interactive revenues
are up 35% year-to-date. All-in-all, the first couple of weeks
of June for the company as a whole exceeded our expectations,
and we're optimistic about the rest of the year.
On the expense side, in the first quarter of
2002, consolidated cash expenses were down 5%, due to a 3%
reduction in compensation achieved through salary cuts, staff
reductions and lower bonus accruals. Newsprint expenses were
down 26%. In the second quarter, and for the full year, we
expect consolidated cash expenses to continue to be down in
the 3-4% range. Those numbers are better than what we planned
when the year began.
The impact of our cost-control efforts is clear.
While it's still a challenging environment, 2002 EBITDA should
grow 10%, even on flat revenues, and more if revenues are
up year-over-year, as trends indicate they might be.
Here are some of the elements contributing
to that EBITDA growth:
- At the Los Angeles Times, first quarter
EBITDA margins improved by 3 percentage points year-over-year,
despite a 4% decrease in revenues. And we're on track for
a similar performance in the second quarter.
- In television, inventory in many of our
markets has tightened, causing pricing to improve and the
strong upfront market is a sign that overall advertising
environment is improving going forward, and that will drive
revenues at the local station level.
- And Tribune Interactive is cash flow positive
year-to-date, well ahead of schedule.
One important thing that hasn't changed even
in a downturn is our ability to generate cash. This year we'll
produce about $1.4 billion of operating cash flow, and our
free cash flow will be in the range of $600 million.
We're using that cash flow to reduce our debt,
which we project will be down to $2.9 billion at the end of
the year, a debt to cash flow ratio of 2x.
Our revenue picture is strong, too. As many
of you know, Tribune is the second largest newspaper company
in terms of revenues, and third in terms of circulation. We
are the fourth largest operator of local television stations
as measured by revenues. Our interactive sites regularly rank
among the top-20 online news and information networks in the
country, drawing some 9 million visitors each month.
Separately, these assets give Tribune tremendous
national reach-80% of all U.S. households are touched by Tribune
products. With a clear concentration in the major markets,
we demonstrate daily the value and impact of local mass media
to our advertisers. Working together, our newspapers, TV stations
and interactive businesses create additional opportunities
for us to deliver innovative cross-media solutions to our
advertising clients.
At the core of our strategy is the fundamental
belief that in a fragmenting media world, owning newspapers
and TV stations in major markets gives us a competitive advantage.
As the only media company with newspapers and TV in the top
three markets, our advantage is unique.
That brings me to my second point, our progress
in reducing costs companywide, including what we've done since
the Times Mirror acquisition, which closed in June 2000.
- We have reduced debt by $2.3 billion since
the merger.
- With regard to Times Mirror, we've reduced
the cumulative costs from 2000 through 2002 by $190 million,
which puts us several years ahead of the schedule we laid
out for you at the time of the announcement of the merger.
In addition, other companywide cost reductions will total
$80 million. That's a total of $270 million, which includes
a staff reduction of 2,100 positions, as well as outsourcing
1,000 staff positions. Also included in that $270 million
is what we did at the corporate level, where we reduced
expenses by $50 million and eliminated 130 positions.
- We said new, incremental revenue from national
advertising would be at least $40 million per year. Last
year, Tribune Media Net delivered $34 million, despite the
severe ad recession. This year, we expect incremental revenue
to be in the $50-60 million range, an improvement of more
than 50% over 2001's strong start. Through May of 2002,
Tribune Media Net had already recognized and booked close
to $31 million in revenue, more than 120 percent ahead of
where they were at the end of May 2001.
- We identified the LA Times as our biggest
area of opportunity. And despite the advertising recession,
margins have improved at the Times. Now, with just a little
help on the top line from a recovering economy, margin expansion
should accelerate.
Part of the opportunity we identified at the
time of the acquisition was to grow preprint market share
in Los Angeles. The Times had just one-third of LA's $350
million preprint market, due in large part to archaic hand
inserting. Based on our experience in Chicago, where the Tribune
has about 65% of the preprint market, we moved quickly to
make improvements at the Times.
We brought a new daily inserting facility on-line
in January and we've already taken about $8 million in business
away from ADVO and PennySaver, ahead of what our revenue projections
were. Later this summer, Sunday insertion will come on-line
and offer even greater opportunity. We're looking to bring
our LA share much closer to Chicago's over the next few years.
We have invested $50 million in this project and expect ROI
to be well above 20 percent.
When you put it all together, you can see we've
made some very significant progress in the last two years.
Let's turn now to a couple of key areas that
will position Tribune for future growth.
First, we're looking to expand our national
footprint in television, and "double up" in markets
where we can.
In newspapers, we're taking important steps
to strengthen our classified advertising franchise, both in
print and online, especially in recruitment.
In television, we are building two-station
clusters in some of the nation's top markets. In April we
created our fourth by agreeing to acquire WTTV-TV in Indianapolis,
where we already own a television station.
The purchase of WTTV-TV gives us another WB
affiliate and is a good compliment for WXIN-TV, our Indianapolis
Fox affiliate. It gives us additional program buying power
in the nation's 25th largest market, which is just one way
we'll lower costs. We'll also combine facilities and administration,
so during the first year of operation we expect about $5 million
in cost savings. When you factor that in, the purchase price
of $125 million is a reasonable 11-times pro forma 2002 EBITDA,
with a return-on-investment in the mid-teens. It's also worth
noting that we're using some of the proceeds from the sale
of our Denver radio stations to fund this acquisition. You
may recall we agreed to sell our three Denver radio stations
for $180 million on a tax-efficient basis, so we have $55
million in trade currency remaining.
WTTV is just another example of our disciplined
acquisition strategy in television. Since 1991 we've acquired
18 television stations at relatively reasonable prices. Our
group will total 24 stations in 20 markets, and we're The
WB's #1 affiliate group with 17 stations.
Speaking of The WB, its fall schedule was really
well-received by advertisers. Total upfront billing looks
to be in the range of $575 million, a 20% increase over last
year. And CPMs will be up about 16%. And in case you're wondering,
the upfront billing that UPN has been touting is less than
half of that, at about $250 million.
Turning to newspapers, our investment in CareerBuilder,
the online recruiting firm that we own in partnership with
Knight Ridder, has provided a strong foundation for our strategy
to "win in classifieds."
Recruitment advertising is a critical area
for every publishing company. In recent years, some of that
advertising (though not nearly as much as Monster would have
you believe) has been migrating to the Internet. We recognized
this early on and moved aggressively to provide our advertisers
with a strong online alternative in CareerBuilder.
CareerBuilder online complements our print
recruitment advertising, and allows us to deliver a local
market option that Monster doesn't have and can't compete
with. And we're supporting CareerBuilder in a big way, re-branding
the Sunday help-wanted sections of all Tribune and Knight
Ridder newspapers with the CareerBuilder name.
This increased awareness of CareerBuilder contributed
to a very strong first quarter, with revenues up 10% compared
with the fourth quarter of 2001. And our competitors? We estimate
that Monster was down 5% and HotJobs, down 15%.
And as Jack will tell you, we expect the recruitment
business to continue improving as the economy bounces back
and as job creation increases. In addition, the Tribune Classified
group is rolling out a series of new, integrated print and
online products for small, medium and large employers.
In summary, Tribune has great strength in "local
mass media"-our newspapers and TV stations are among
the best in the country. The added value in the equation is
the combined power of our media assets, and what they can
do together. We're cross-selling advertising, we're building
audience share through cross-promotion and we're building
our brands by sharing content. This is something few other
media companies can do.
We continue to believe that there is substantial
upside in owning multiple media franchises in the same market.
We started in Chicago, with the Chicago Tribune, WGN-TV and
WGN-Radio, added the Chicago Cubs and later CLTV, our all-news
cable channel. Today the group also includes chicagotribune.com
and our weekly Hispanic newspaper, ¡Exito!. It's a powerful
model.
Our model works because it's built on solid
local franchises in some of the best markets in the country.
Our newspapers and television stations serve the needs of
both advertisers, and millions of readers and viewers who
depend on Tribune for news, information and entertainment.
We have excellent fundamentals and a streamlined
cost structure. Our cash flow gives us the flexibility to
move quickly as industry deregulation presents new opportunities
for growth. And our experience is that the large markets,
where our local media franchises are located, come back more
quickly and are even stronger following a recession. As the
rebound takes shape, we are in great position to take advantage
of it.
On that note, let's turn to Jack Fuller for
a closer look at our publishing operations.
Jack Fuller, President/Tribune Publishing
Thank you Dennis, and good afternoon. Today,
I am going to give you a brief update on our newspaper business,
talk about our readership and advertiser market share, and
discuss a powerful new integrated print/online recruitment
product that we think will be a Monster-slayer.
Near term, business is improving. We're pleased
with retail ad revenue's performance, which has showed sequential
improvement since January. Pre-print revenues are up 7% year-to-date.
In addition, classified auto and real estate have shown growth
on a year to date basis. National continues to be up and down,
making it difficult to call a trend. Help wanted has continued
to improve since the first of the year-January was down 44%
vs. May, which was down 23%.
The trend in help wanted is similar to what
we saw during the 1990-1 recession. We expect the business
to continue improving as the economy and job creation increases.
As you can see from this chart, current job creation is tracking
slightly ahead of the same point in the 1990-1 recession.
This gives us hope that we will see year-over-year growth
in recruitment advertising by the fourth quarter.
We have moved aggressively to cut costs in
Tribune Publishing Company and it showed in the first quarter
results. Publishing cash expenses were down 7%. Excluding
newsprint, compensation and other cash expenses were 3% lower
due to the voluntary retirement program, other reductions
in force and outsourcing of certain circulation operations
in LA.
We did all of this without sacrificing the
long-term health of our franchises. Let me show you our way
of accomplishing this by talking for a moment about our readership
strategy. Paid circulation is, of course, important because
of the revenue it represents and the fact that twice a year
everyone focuses on the ABC numbers. But we are paying a lot
more attention to readership these days, and we think you
should be, too. A paper that is bought but not read does our
advertisers no good. Nor does it increase public knowledge,
the promotion of which is the calling of great journalism.
We measure readership at our newspapers through
internal tracking studies and market surveys by both Gallup
and Scarborough. These metrics correspond to the way TV and
other media measure their audience.
Our strategy is to grow readership in a steady,
durable, cost-effective manner. And it works. Let me use the
LA Times as an example.
When we acquired Times Mirror, we found that
this world class paper was being marketed as a community newspaper
at a rock-bottom price. The first thing our team in LA did
was to reposition the LA Times as a premium newspaper - the
voice of the West -- the only one in its market that is able
to handle the most important, far-reaching, and difficult-to-cover
stories.
As part of this repositioning, the editorial
department reorganized the news sections. The management team
eliminated the 14 weekly Our Times supplements, which had
been begun in an attempt to make the LA Times seem more like
a community newspaper. These sections were both financial
and journalistic failures.
The other key element of positioning the LA
Times as a premium paper was increasing both home-delivery
and single copy prices.
Meanwhile, the new management team got rid
of the phony circulation. It did away with gimmicks and forced
buys. It eliminated heavily subsidized circulation. It stopped
distributing papers in ways that involved a high likelihood
they would not be read.
As a consequence daily ABC circulation dropped,
as we knew it would, but importantly during the same period
readership, as measured by Scarborough, actually improved.
Included in those readership numbers is an interesting statistic--nearly
two thirds of African Americans and English-speaking Hispanics
read the LA Times.
Interestingly, by the way, an LA Times readership
study showed the readership among U.S. born-Hispanic adults
is only slightly lower than non-Hispanic adults.
On Sunday the picture is better by all measures.
Circulation since the acquisition is up 20,000 copies despite
a 17% increase in price. Sunday readership is up too.
Consumers are willing to pay more for great
newspapers, when they're positioned and marketed properly.
As you can see from this chart, our circulation strategy is
a financial winner too, yielding $27 million in incremental
revenue since the acquisition.
And if that doesn't prove that the premium
branding strategy worked, consider the results in Orange County
where the Times faced its most intense competition. The Orange
County Register did not follow our newsstand price increase
until April 2002, which reinforced the perception we wanted
to build - that the LA Times was the premium brand. The result
- on Sunday, the Register's Sunday circulation numbers fell
more than the LA Times, which gained one share point against
the Register. Finally, on both weekday and Sunday, the LA
Times readership rose while the Register's readership slid.
This same premium price strategy is working
for us in South Florida where our newspaper, the Sun-Sentinel,
competes with the Miami Herald in South Broward County, and
is priced higher. While the circulation numbers make it look
as if we're running neck and neck in South Broward, the readership
data shows the Sun Sentinel leads the Miami Herald by 30%
daily and 39% on Sunday.
Looking at Tribune Publishing Company as a
whole, our 12 daily newspapers are read by 8.7 million readers
daily and 11.7 million readers every Sunday. Nine of our 12
newspapers are in the top 20 markets. Tribune newspapers reach
more people in the top 20 markets than any other newspaper
company in the country. This is significant for advertisers
because the top 20 markets represent 51% of the total U.S.
consumer buying power. We deliver the audience advertisers
need to reach. We have a national footprint, unparalleled
news coverage and journalistic excellence and our newspapers
generate nearly $4 B in revenue annually.
If some of you are wondering what our12th daily
newspaper is-it is Hoy, which means Today in Spanish. In just
a little more than two years Hoy has become the largest Spanish
language newspaper in New York and it is nicely profitable.
Its daily circulation of 75,000 puts it already among the
150 largest daily newspapers in the country. Revenue is up
over 30% in the first quarter from 2001. Hoy's goal is to
become the largest Spanish language daily in the United States.
Through Hoy and our other Spanish language papers, we have
a real opportunity to grow with the Hispanic community, both
in Spanish and then if successor generations prefer, in English.
So as you can see, Tribune is focused on smartly
growing readership share. Now let me turn to the most important
advertiser share battle for newspapers, which is in the help
wanted market against Internet competitors. The headline is
this: through CareerBuilder we are gaining on Monster and
the other online competitors. Make that a very big, bold headline.
As Dennis mentioned, in the first quarter CareerBuilder
revenue was up 10% while Monster was down 5% in the United
States and HotJobs was down 15%. And we haven't even hauled
out our best weapons yet.
We are gaining share because recruitment is
fundamentally a local business. Almost 90% of job seekers
who start looking for a job today want to find one in the
town where they live. Even among professional and executive
employees fewer than 20% relocate for their next position.
Consumers overwhelmingly go first to their local newspaper
when they start a job search.
It is no wonder they do, since we have more
than twice as many job postings as Monster in our local markets.
We're the place employers turn to most, as well, because 50%
more job seekers look to CareerBuilder-branded online and
print offerings than Monster. This with much lower customer
acquisition cost than Monster.
As I mentioned earlier, we are deploying some
new weapons in the help wanted share battle. The first of
these is the full-market listing. This is an easy-to-post,
integrated print and online listing that delivers tremendous
local market reach and value for employers. Monster and HotJobs
just can't compete with our full-market product because they
only have the online part and we own both.
This is the banner that has been running on
the front of the CareerBuilder section in Hartford, where
we are test-marketing the new product. Our sales force is
telling us that employers are actually switching their dollars
from Monster back to us. After only a few weeks in the market
almost 20% of print ads in Hartford are being converted to
full market listings. These are not conventional uploads of
agate listings. This is a new and more powerful tool for recruiters.
We plan to have this product up and running in all our markets
by the fourth quarter.
Put all this together and it looks more and
more like the eighties, when everyone said ADVO was going
to take all of our pre-print business away. Well, it didn't
happen. We eventually got our act together, listened to our
customers, and built great products that delivered what they
wanted with great efficiency through integrated print-direct
mail products. Because of this, our insert business has had
tremendous growth over the last 15 years, and ADVO has struggled
in our markets. As Dennis mentioned, the Chicago Tribune has
two thirds of the market and in LA the Times is well on its
way to growing its share. We're going to do the same thing
in recruitment -- give customers great solutions that use
the best of print and online and build one heck of a business.
Now here's Pat Mullen to give you a closer
look at the success we've been having at our broadcast operations...
Pat Mullen, President/Tribune Television
Thank you Jack.
It's nice to be able to stand here today and
say business is looking up: our stations had an excellent
May sweep, revenue for the month of June looks very strong,
and the upfront for The WB network was terrific, which all
bodes well for a strong second half in 2002.
Television is a business driven by programming
and with top performing syndicated shows like "Everybody
Loves Raymond" and "Friends," and the addition
of "Will & Grace" this fall our strong news
franchises and the strength of The WB network, our share of
the audience will continue to grow.
Let me start with the early- and late-fringe
programs which account for 40% of our revenue. "Raymond"
was up, on average, 19% versus the May 2001 time period. "Friends"
continues to be the top rated off-network sitcom with ratings
generally equal to or above last year's numbers. And we enhance
the line-up this fall with the addition of "Will &
Grace."
News continues to be a key strategy for our
local stations, delivering about 15% of station revenue. It's
what links us to the communities we serve. And, in combination
with network affiliation, news gives a station its identity.
Additionally, because of its unique connection to the local
marketplace, news programming commands premium advertising
rates.
So, we continue to expand our news efforts,
and the results have been rewarding.
- In Chicago, WGN's morning news is the #1
local show in the market and #2 overall, beating NBC's "Today
Show" handily. At night, WGN has the #1 rated news
at nine o'clock.
- We have similar high ratings in Los Angeles
where KTLA's morning news is #3 among all morning news programs.
- Here in New York, "The WPIX Morning
News" continues to beat the "CBS Morning News."
WPIX's 10 pm news was the only late news broadcast in the
market whose audience share was up compared to May of last
year.
And our newest morning news programs in Indianapolis,
Seattle and Denver grew their audience share by 40%, 50% and
66% respectively.
Moving to The WB…May was a record-setting
month. The network scored its highest-ever May Sweep ratings
- across the entire 18-34 demographic and in adults 18-49.
The WB also posted the strongest growth this May of any network
among households, key male demos, and tied NBC for highest
growth among total viewers.
Advertisers have demonstrated their enthusiasm
for this programming, too. As Dennis mentioned, The WB had
a record upfront, with $575 million in sales.
Last year at this conference, when we stood
here in front of you and talked about the WB's new program
lineup, we focused on two shows in particular: "Smallville"
and "Reba". We had great confidence in those shows
- and both have gone on to become major hits. Well, it just
gets better.
The development slate for the WB's 2002 season
is the best yet. There are a number of pilots we're excited
about, but there is one show that you really should see: "Everwood",
starring Treat Williams. Our advertisers are saying it's one
of the best pilots they've ever seen.
This fall on Monday nights, "Everwood"
will follow The WB's top rated "7th Heaven" - a
perfect time slot to launch this show. We think "Everwood"
looks like a hit, but we know it's a program that makes us
proud to be part of The WB network.
Dennis spoke earlier about our strategic objectives:
expanding our footprint in the top 30-40 markets, extending
our cross-media assets, and building two-station-clusters.
Given our recent announcement regarding the acquisition of
WTTV in Indianapolis, let's talk a little more about the advantages
of two-station clusters.
It's a simple formula-a common infrastructure,
reduced backroom costs, and staffing efficiencies, mean higher
margins. In addition, there are major programming and cross-promotion
advantages.
With a two-station cluster, you take a competitor
out of the market and programming costs decline. Market license
agreements, as opposed to individual station licenses, allow
us to air shows on one or both stations. And, with careful
scheduling and demographically targeted cross-promotion…ratings
increase for both stations.
A great example of this is the performance
of our two-station cluster in Seattle. We have an aggressive
strategy of programming "A" sitcoms against one
another - "Friends" on our Fox station, KCPQ, and
"Raymond" on our WB affiliate, KTWB. Then, we actively
promote each show on both stations. The result… higher
ratings on both stations. Ratings for "Friends"
on KCPQ were up 24% in the May book and ratings for "Raymond"
on KTWB were up 50%. Our combined market revenue share up
nearly 2 points.
That's why a station like WTTV in Indianapolis
is a perfect fit. As we look for additional acquisition opportunities,
we plan to "double up" wherever we can.
While our primary business is local mass media,
Tribune also has several important national assets. People
often overlook our 31% interest in The Food Channel, the fastest
growing cable network, our 9% stake in The Golf Channel, and
of course, 22.5% ownership of The WB network.
But perhaps our best-known national assets
- aside from the Chicago Cubs - are WGN Superstation and Tribune
Entertainment.
WGN Superstation now reaches more than 56 million
homes. And, by taking control of national distribution to
cable operators, we've added a second revenue stream that
will continue to grow, as well.
Tribune Entertainment is a significant program
supplier to our station group and this fall we are looking
forward to the launch of "Beyond with James Van Praagh"
- a half hour strip that showcases the remarkable talents
of the internationally renowned psychic, James Van Praagh.
The "buzz" on this show is fantastic.
CBS recently ran a highly-rated four hour miniseries about
Mr. Van Praagh (thank you CBS for the national promotion),
and just a couple weeks ago, there was a front page feature
story in Electronic Media.
Let me conclude by echoing Dennis's statements
that we are believers in the power of local mass media. As
investors look to the future, it's important to recognize
the differences between national and local media options and
how advertisers access those options.
Today there are seven over-the-air broadcast
networks and scores of cable networks and numerous other national
media options. For advertisers seeking to reach a national
audience, these networks are viable options. However, reaching
mass media audiences in specific local markets is an entirely
different story. And that makes Tribune's local media franchises
more valuable than ever.
To illustrate this point, let me show you a
few slides from a presentation that Tribune stations have
created to help dispel the myth of local cable. From these
slides, you will see that local cable simply cannot compete
as an effective local mass media option. Let me explain...
Let's take a look at the Chicago example. When
selling to local advertisers, the local interconnect will
present a slide such as this which suggest that cable stations
receive 42% total viewing and should therefore take a much
larger share of the television dollars.
- But let's take a closer look at the
42%.
- 5% of viewing is to non-interconnect
or DBS homes...
- 14% to networks without local inventory
to sell...
- 9% to kids networks such as Nick and
Cartoon...
- and 3% to pay cable.
- That leaves only 11%.
Cable suggests 42%, but the percentage of cable
viewing actually available to local advertisers is only 11%...
and there are 33 insertable cable network sharing that 11%
for an average rating of a .18. Hardly local mass media.
This is a really important point so to clearly
demonstrate what this means to a local advertiser, take a
look at WGN's news vs. cable news. WGN's 9 pm news achieves
a 6.8 rating reaching more that 228,000 homes. One spot on
each of the cable news networks combined reaches less that
64,000 homes.
To be sure, cable advertising has legitimate
use as a national vehicle. But, in the end, cable is not a
local mass media substitute for broadcast television.
Advertisers have always had, and will always
have, the need to reach large local audiences to sell their
products and services-that's exactly what they get with Tribune
Television.
And with that, let me turn it over to Don Grenesko,
who will review our key financials.
Don Grenesko, Sr. Vice President/Finance
and Administration
I'll wrap up our formal presentation with a
summary of key financial highlights:
Revenues continue to improve. Although consolidated
revenues declined by 5% in the first quarter, April and May
together are about flat with last year (+2%/-1%). Year-to-date,
consolidated revenues are down just 3% and we expect continued
improvement in the second half.
Cash expenses are down significantly. Cash
expenses for the full year should be 3-4% lower than in 2001.
We'll achieve this despite a $15M increase
in broadcast rights due to new shows and our accelerated amortization
policy, a $30M decrease in our pension credit and restoration
of moderate management bonuses.
Without these changes, cash expenses would
be down in the 5-6% range.
Average staffing levels for the company as
a whole will be 5-6% below last year.
Operating cash flow will grow by at least 10%
and will be significantly higher if revenues increase on a
full-year basis.
For the second quarter we are comfortable at
the upper end of the range of analysts' earnings-per-share
estimates which is currently 42-47 cents. For the full year
we are comfortable within the range which is $1.50-$1.65.
We have reduced capital expenditures to about
$250 million for the year, a decrease of $25 million.
Moving to the balance sheet, our year-end debt
level should be at or below $2.9 billion, excluding the PHONES
transaction. On this basis our debt should be about 2x operating
cash flow by the end of 2002. We believe this is consistent
with a mid-"A" bond rating and top-tier commercial
paper rating, and these ratings are among the highest of media
companies.
Let me take a moment here to discuss our PHONES
transaction and related debt, which was mentioned last week
by one of the rating agencies.
If you recall, 3 years ago we monetized 16
million shares of AOL stock at $78/share, very close to AOL's
all-time high.
We received proceeds of $1.25 billion, while
also realizing two significant tax benefits. We deferred $500
million of capital gains taxes for 30 years, and we are able
to deduct 8 1/8% interest for tax purposes annually, while
only paying 2% interest. At the end of 30 years, we will owe
PHONES holders the higher of the AOL stock price at that point
in time, or the original $78/share.
From an accounting standpoint, we include the
PHONES as a liability on our balance sheet and the AOL stock
as an asset, in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting
Principles. Each quarter, we mark the PHONES liability and
AOL stock to market and reflect the non-cash gains and losses
as non-operating items in our earnings statements.
From a debt-holder and rating agency standpoint,
we feel that the best treatment is to net the deep discount
debt component of the PHONES against the underlying value
of the AOL stock, which would increase our current debt level
by $100-150 million, but this will vary depending upon the
value of AOL stock. Needless to say, this was both a terrific
investment and monetization strategy.
Returning to our operating businesses, let
me update you on the projected investment returns on two of
our recent acquisitions:
We're very pleased with the Times Mirror acquisition,
we're well ahead of schedule on cost reduction and we're projecting
an investment return in the low double digits. This is above
our 9% cost of capital, and is in spite of the severe recession
we have gone through.
Also, our TV acquisitions, including the recently
announced purchase of WTTV in Indianapolis, should have returns
in the mid-teens.
Finally, in terms of valuation, we think a
sum-of-the-parts analysis best captures the value of our company.
It's based upon current multiples of cash flow
of our operating businesses plus our equity investments such
as The WB Network, TV Food Network, Golf Channel, CareerBuilder,
Classified Ventures and Brass Ring, which total $1.6 billion.
This comes to a value of about $50 per share,
and that's on depressed cash flow.
If you assume a more normalized cash flow,
the value increases significantly.
For all of these reasons, we're optimistic
about the future.
:: :: ::
This document contains certain comments
or forward-looking statements that are based largely on the
company's current expectations and are subject to certain
risks, trends and uncertainties. Such comments and statements
should be understood in the context of Tribune's publicly
available reports filed with the SEC, including the most current
annual report, 10-K and 10-Q, which contain a discussion of
various factors that may affect the company's business. These
factors could cause actual future performance to differ materially
from current expectations. Tribune Company is not responsible
for updating the information contained in this press release
beyond the published date, or for changes made to this document
by wire services or Internet service providers. |